[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 17 January 23 issued 2336 UT on 17 Jan 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 18 10:36:53 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JANUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JANUARY - 20 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jan: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq.
M1.8 2329UT possible lower.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jan: 222/172
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 220/170 220/170 218/168
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 17-Jan was at the R1 level,
due to a M1.8 flare at 17/2329UT. Several C-class flares were
also observed, including a C9.4 at 17/0013UT from AR3192 (N18E28,
beta). There are currently nine numbered sunspot regions visible
on the solar disk. AR3190 (S15E24, beta-gamma-delta) is the most
magnetically complex and largest sunspot region and has shown
some decay in its trailer spots. AR3192 has exhibited spot development
over the 24-hour period. New sunspot region AR3195 (N28E04, beta)
has shown some growth since appearing on the disk. All other
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R1 level, with a chance of R2 over 18-20
Jan. A low velocity northwest CME was observed, visible in LASCO
C2 coronagraph imagery from 17/1024UT. This CME is likely associated
with an eruption off the northeast limb visible in GOES SUVI
imagery at 17/1000UT. Modelling indicates this CME does not contain
a geoeffective component. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been
observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 17-Jan was elevated
with a declining trend before increasing late in the UT day.
A weak shock in the solar wind was observed at 17/2114UT, possibly
indicating a CME impact to Earth's magnetosphere. A period of
southward IMF conditions began at 17/2115UT and is ongoing. The
solar wind speed ranged from 345 to 475 km/s, and is currently
near 450 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 15 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+4 to -12 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated
over 18-20 Jan due to coronal hole effects and a possible recent
CME impact.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 17 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 12211004
Cocos Island 3 12110003
Darwin 6 12211014
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 7 12221014
Alice Springs 6 12211004
Gingin 5 12221003
Canberra 6 12211004
Hobart 6 12211004
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jan :
Macquarie Island 3 02101003
Casey 19 35442014
Mawson 9 23322113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Hobart 44 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 3123 3211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jan 18 G0, chance G1
19 Jan 16 G0, slight chance G1
20 Jan 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 17-Jan. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Casey. A weak shock was detected in the solar
wind at 17/2114UT, possibly indicating a recent CME impact. G0
geomagnetic conditions are expected over 18-20 Jan, with a chance
of G1 on 18-Jan and a slight chance of G1 on 19-Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
19 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
20 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 18-20
Jan. Mild HF degradations are possible on 18-Jan at middle to
high latitudes during local night hours. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jan 125
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 84
Jan 71
Feb 72
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jan 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Jan 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Jan 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on
14 January and is current for 16-18 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 17-Jan were near predicted
monthly values to 30% enhanced in Southern Australia. Sporadic
E was observed at Brisbane and Learmonth. MUFs are generally
expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
over 18-20 Jan. Mild degradations due to increased geomagnetic
activity are possible over 18-19 Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jan
Speed: 485 km/sec Density: 11.6 p/cc Temp: 179000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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