[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 16 January 23 issued 2330 UT on 16 Jan 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 17 10:30:56 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JANUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JANUARY - 19 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jan: 228/178
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 226/176 226/176 226/176
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 16-Jan was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. There are currently nine numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered
region. AR3182 (S18W73, beta) was responsible for the largest
C-class flare but has decayed over the UT day. AR3190 (S15E40,
beta-gamma-delta) has exhibited spot development over the 24-hour
period. AR3192 (N20E43, beta-gamma-delta) has shown minor growth
in its trailer spots. An unnumbered sunspot region recently appeared
at ~N26E18 (beta) and has shown spot development. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. The background X-ray flux
remains at C-class levels, with a slight decline over the UT
day. Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level, with a
chance of R2 over 17-19 Jan. Several CMEs were observed, but
none are considered geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT
day 16-Jan was elevated with a declining trend, ranging from
435 to 535 km/s, and is currently near 475 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT, and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +7 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain elevated over 17-19 Jan and possibly increase
due to a pair of small coronal holes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 16 Jan : A K
Australian Region 11 32333311
Cocos Island 9 31223312
Darwin 8 32223301
Townsville 12 323-----
Learmonth 13 42333312
Alice Springs 9 32233301
Gingin 11 41233311
Canberra 9 32332211
Hobart 9 32332211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jan :
Macquarie Island 16 22354410
Casey 24 55533312
Mawson 22 43544332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 23 4344 3344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jan 5 G0
18 Jan 14 G0
19 Jan 16 G0, slight chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 16-Jan. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. A mild increase in geomagnetic activity
may be experienced over 18-19 Jan due to a solar wind stream
from pair of small coronal holes. Recent partially Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections may mildly increase geomagnetic activity
on 19-Jan. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 17-19
Jan, with a slight chance of G1 on 19-Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal
18 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 17-19
Jan. Mild HF degradations are possible late 18-19 Jan at middle
to high latitudes during local night hours. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jan 92
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 84
Jan 71
Feb 72
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jan 95 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 Jan 95 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Jan 95 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on
14 January and is current for 16-18 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 16-Jan were near predicted
monthly values to 20% enhanced in Northern Australia. Southern
Australian region MUFs were depressed by 25% during local day.
MUFs are generally expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced over 17-19 Jan. Mild degradations due to increased
geomagnetic activity are possible over 18-19 Jan. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jan
Speed: 463 km/sec Density: 6.8 p/cc Temp: 203000 K Bz: -6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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