[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 January 23 issued 2331 UT on 14 Jan 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 15 10:31:04 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JANUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JANUARY - 17 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jan: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 0211UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M3.5 2021UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M4.6 2101UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jan: 228/178
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 225/175 225/175 220/170
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Jan was at the R1 level.
There are currently nine numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. Five of these solar regions AR3182(S18W46, beta-delta),
AR3186(N27E18, beta-delta), A3190(S14E63, beta-gamma, AR3191(N12E56,
beta) and AR3192 (N20E64, beta-gamma) are of the most interest.
The M3.5 flare was in decline when the X-ray flux increased again
peaking at M4.6, both events were produced by AR3182. Due to
this regions location and flare profile a proton enhancement
and partially Earth directed CME could follow this flare. Spaced
based coronagraph images will be checked as they become available.
The slow rise and fall M1.3 was from AR3191. No CME appeared
to be associated. Solar flare activity is expected to be R1 with
the chance of an isolated R2 event. Solar Region AR3182 is in
decline but showed some redevelopment in its trailer spots. Region
AR3184(S13E07, beta) is in decline. Minor region AR3189(N20W41)
has decayed. Minor solar region AR3188(S23E34, beta), is showing
growth. Two filament eruptions were observed, the first in SDO/GOES
304 located at S40E70 at 14/1118UT, the second in GONG H-alpha
at 14/1254UT located at S20E40. A minor south east CME was observed
in LASCO C2 from 14/1236UT likely associated with the second
eruption. Event modelling shows an Earth miss. The solar wind
speed on UT day 14-Jan was variable, ranging from 433 to 512
km/s, and is currently near 433 km/s. The cause of the unexpected
mildly elevated wind speed is unclear. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +8 to -7 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 14 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 23211122
Cocos Island 2 22100011
Darwin 6 23211112
Townsville 6 23211122
Learmonth 7 33211122
Alice Springs 6 23211112
Gingin 4 22211012
Canberra 5 23200022
Hobart 6 23210122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jan :
Macquarie Island 5 23210012
Casey 35 56643133
Mawson 26 44431264
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 2122 2234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jan 5 G0
16 Jan 5 G0
17 Jan 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 14-Jan, with mildly increased geomagnetic activity
observed during the first half of the day. In the Antarctic region
periods of G1 and G2 were observed at Mawson and Casey. A partially
Earth directed CME may have occurred in association with todays
flare activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jan Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal
16 Jan Normal Normal Normal
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 15-17
Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jan 132
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15-25%.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20-30%.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25-50%.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 84
Jan 71
Feb 72
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jan 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Jan 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
17 Jan 100 Near to 15% predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on
14 January and is current for 16-18 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 14-Jan were near predicted
monthly values to 50% enhanced. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 15-17 Jan. Shortwave
fadeouts are probable. HF fadeout observed at Niue in association
with M3.5/M4.6 flare, impacting lower HF frequencies.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jan
Speed: 407 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 93800 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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