[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 15 January 23 issued 2330 UT on 15 Jan 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 16 10:30:51 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JANUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JANUARY - 18 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jan: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M6.0 0342UT probable lower E. Asia/Aust.
M4.8 1431UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jan: 234/184
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 235/185 230/180 225/175
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 15-Jan was at the R2 level
due to an M6 flare from solar region AR3191(N14E39). This flare
was associated with a south and east directed CME, with event
modelling only showing a possible weak glancing blow arriving
mid to late 19-Jan. Yesterdays M3 and M4 flares were associated
with quite slow CMEs, and modelling showed a possible glancing
blow(s) arriving during the first half of 19-Jan, as the solar
region of origin AR3182 was quite west at the time of these two
flare events. Due to weak associated solar radio bursts no proton
enhancement followed the M3/M4 pair of flares. The M6 flare event
is considered too far to the east for any possible flare associated
protons to reach the Earth. There are currently 9 numbered solar
regions on the disk, of these the are five current regions of
interest, AR3182(S18W60, beta) which is in decline, AR3186(N27E04,
beta) showing decline in its trailers, AR3190(S14E49, beta) currently
stable in area, AR3191(N14E39, beta) and AR3192(N20E50, beta)
are both showing growth. The M4.8 flare was from AR3190 and was
not associated with a significant CME. Solar flare activity is
expected to be R1 with the chance of an isolated R2 event. The
solar wind speed on UT day 15-Jan was variable, ranging from
413 to 529 km/s, and is currently near 474 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11nT, and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +3 to -10 nT. The IMF Bz component
sustained a mild southward orientation throughout the UT day.
The cause is unclear. A pair of small coronal holes are visible
just to the west of solar central meridian which may mildly increase
the solar wind speed on 18-19 Jan. A larger isolated equatorial
coronal hole is visible in the eastern solar hemisphere.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 15 Jan : A K
Australian Region 18 33344333
Cocos Island 11 22323323
Darwin 15 32334333
Townsville 22 32445433
Learmonth 22 33345334
Alice Springs 17 32344333
Gingin 25 43345434
Canberra 19 33444333
Hobart 25 33454434
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jan :
Macquarie Island 34 34555543
Casey 31 55533335
Mawson 54 45654566
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 26
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 3321 1123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jan 5 G0
17 Jan 5 G0
18 Jan 14 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions, with isolated G1 periods
at some sites, was observed in the Australian region on UT day
15-Jan, with the mild increase in geomagnetic activity observed
during local night hours. Isolated G1 periods were observed at
Townsville, Learmonth and Gingin. G1-G2 conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. The mild geomagnetic activity was in
association with sustained mild southward IMF conditions on 15-Jan.
A mild increase in geomagnetic activity may be experienced on
18-19 Jan due to a solar wind stream from pair of small coronal
holes. Recent partially Earth directed coronal mass ejections
may mildly increased activity on 19-Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jan Normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jan Normal Fair-normal Fair
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal
18 Jan Normal Normal Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions were observed at high latitudes
on 15-Jan. Initially degraded conditions expected for 16-Jan
at middle to high latitudes then improving. Mostly normal HF
conditions are expected over 17-18 Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are
probable. Mild HF degradation possible late 18-19 Jan, middle
to high latitudes local night hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jan 120
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20-35%.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-25%.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed 15-20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 84
Jan 71
Feb 72
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jan 60 Depressed 15-20% southern Australia, Near to
15% above predicted monthly values northern Australia.
17 Jan 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 Jan 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on
14 January and is current for 16-18 Jan. ASWFC HF Communications
Warning 8 was issued on 15 January and is current for 16 Jan
only. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region
on UT day 15-Jan were near predicted monthly values to 35% enhanced.
Southern Australian region MUFs are 15-20% depressed after local
dawn this morning following mild overnight geomagnetic activity
and northern Australian region MUFs are currently enhanced 15-20%.
MUFs are generally expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced over 17-18 Jan. Isolated Shortwave fadeouts are
possible. A HF fadeout observed was observed in association with
M6 flare at 15/0342UT, impacting lower HF frequencies.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jan
Speed: 509 km/sec Density: 10.6 p/cc Temp: 389000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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