[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 January 23 issued 2331 UT on 13 Jan 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 14 10:31:09 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JANUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JANUARY - 16 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jan: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 0259UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M4.0 1015UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jan: 209/160
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 212/163 215/165 215/165
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-Jan was at the R1 level.
There are currently ten numbered sunspot regions visible on the
solar disk, with two new small regions rotating onto the disk
over the northeast limb. Of these solar regions AR3182(S18W34,
beta), AR3184(S13E18, beta), AR3186(N27E29, beta), and AR3190(S14E61,
beta) are the most significant. Recently active AR3181 is rotating
over the south west limb. AR3190 currently appears as a large
spot which may be followed by trailers spots. Solar region AR3186
produced the M1 flare and AR3181(S19W89, beta) produced the M3.9
flare. The M3.9 flare was associated with a weak Type II solar
radio sweep. Solar region AR3186 showed decay in intermediate
spots, but showed growth in its trailer spots. AR3184 showed
development in its trailer spots and AR3182 is decaying. Solar
flare activity appears to have now decreased with R1 activity
and the chance of an isolated R2 event now expected over 14-16-Jan.
Yesterdays filament eruption at S26E22 did not appear to have
an associated CME. Two CMEs have been observed, both considered
associated with activity from departing AR3181 on/near the southwest
limb. The first CME was observed in LASCO C2 from 12/2212UT to
the southwest and the second from 13/1824UT to the west. For
the first CME south west limb plasma motion and ejecta was evident
in SDO094 12/20-21UT with high association confidence. There
is some ambiguity with the second CME disk correlation, this
is due to some minor activity also in AR3182, for now this CME
is considered associated with activity near/behind the southwest
limb, possibly to the north of AR3181 (SDO193 13/1718UT) with
perhaps brief coronal diming evident. The far westward location
of these CMEs implies that they are not likely to be geoeffective.
A minor proton enhancement of 4.4PFU was observed 13/0055-1435UT.
The solar wind speed on UT day 13-Jan was variable, ranging from
353 to 470 km/s, and is currently near 474 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10nT, and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -9 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to gradually decline to background levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 13 Jan : A K
Australian Region 11 22232234
Cocos Island 8 21122233
Darwin 10 22232233
Townsville 11 22232234
Learmonth 10 22232233
Alice Springs 11 22232234
Gingin 11 22232234
Canberra 9 22232133
Hobart 12 22332134
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jan :
Macquarie Island 14 22253133
Casey 23 45442234
Mawson 38 34543274
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 3121 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jan 5 G0
15 Jan 5 G0
16 Jan 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 13-Jan, with mildly increased geomagnetic activity
observed. In the Antarctic region isolated periods of G1 and
G3 were observed at Mawson and an isolated period of G1 observed
at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 14-16 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal
16 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 14-16
Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jan 105
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15-20%.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 84
Jan 71
Feb 72
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jan 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Jan 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Jan 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 6 was issued on
13 January and is current for 13-15 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 13-Jan were near predicted
monthly values to 20% enhanced in the northern Australian region
and depressed 15% for the first half of the local day then becoming
enhanced during the local night hours in the southern Australian
region. Some southern Australian region sites are mildly depressed
around 13/22-23UT this morning, however the mild depression is
not expected to persist. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced over 14-16 Jan. Shortwave fadeouts
are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jan
Speed: 413 km/sec Density: 7.0 p/cc Temp: 112000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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