[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 January 23 issued 2331 UT on 12 Jan 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 13 10:31:00 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JANUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JANUARY - 15 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jan: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0619UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.5 0646UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.2 1130UT possible lower European
M1.0 1457UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.1 1914UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jan: 212/163
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 210/161 210/161 208/159
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-Jan was at the R1 level
due to several low level M-class flares, the largest of which
was a M1.5 flare at 12/0646UT from AR3186 (N27E40, beta-gamma).
There are currently six numbered sunspot regions visible on the
solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3186 is the largest sunspot
region and has shown spot development over the 24-hour period.
AR3182 (S18W23, beta-gamma) and AR3185 (N24W37, beta) have both
exhibited growth in their trailer spots. A new unnumbered region
is rotating over the eastern limb at ~S12E85 and appears stable.
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over 13-15 Jan. Several
CMEs were observed, but none are considered geoeffective. A filament
was observed lifting off the disk, visible in H-alpha imagery
at S26E22 from 12/1704UT. A subsequent CME is yet to be observed
in the available imagery. The solar wind speed on UT day 12-Jan
was mildly elevated and stable, ranging from 390 to 450 km/s,
and is currently near 405 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +8 to -7 nT. A period of southward IMF conditions
began at 12/2000UT and is ongoing. The solar wind speed is expected
to decline to background levels over 13-15 Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 12 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 22221223
Cocos Island 5 22211112
Darwin 6 22211222
Townsville 8 22222223
Learmonth 8 32222222
Alice Springs 7 32212222
Gingin 8 32221223
Canberra 8 22311223
Hobart 9 23321223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jan :
Macquarie Island 5 22211212
Casey 39 66553333
Mawson 29 44434336
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 6 1211 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jan 8 G0
14 Jan 5 G0
15 Jan 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 12-Jan. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with a period of G1-G2 observed
at Casey and an isolated period of G2 observed at Mawson. G0
geomagnetic conditions are expected over 13-15 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 13-15
Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jan 123
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 84
Jan 71
Feb 72
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jan 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Jan 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Jan 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on
10 January and is current for 11-13 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 12-Jan were near predicted
monthly values to 20% enhanced. Sporadic E was observed at Townsville.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15%
enhanced over 13-15 Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jan
Speed: 407 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 121000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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