[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 11 January 23 issued 2330 UT on 11 Jan 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 12 10:30:58 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JANUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JANUARY - 14 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jan: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.5 0059UT possible lower West Pacific
M5.7 0156UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.3 0610UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M3.1 0833UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jan: 195/147
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 196/148 196/148 198/150
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 11-Jan was at the R2 level,
due to a M5.6 flare at 11/0156UT from AR3184 (S13E44, beta-delta).
Three R1 level flares were also observed from AR3181 (S19W64,
beta) and AR3186 (N25E54, beta). There are currently six numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and two unnumbered
regions. AR3184 is the most magnetically complex region and has
shown some minor development in its trailer spots. AR3181 has
shown some decay in its intermediate spots and decreased in magnetic
complexity. AR3185 (N24W23, beta) and AR3186 have both exhibited
spot development over the 24-hour period. Two new unnumbered
regions have appeared at S18E75 (beta) and N26W01 (alpha) and
are stable. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in
decay. The background level of X-ray flux remains at C-class
levels and has been increasing since 11/1200UT. Solar activity
is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over 12-14 Jan. A northeast
CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at
11/0848UT. This CME appears to be appears to be associated with
a prominence eruption off the northeastern limb, visible in GOES
SUVI 304 at 11/0821UT. This CME is not considered geoeffective.
Several other CMEs were observed, but none are considered geoeffective.
The solar wind speed on UT day 11-Jan was mildly elevated and
stable, ranging from 365 to 465 km/s, and is currently near 420
km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 9 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +7
to -8 nT. Several short periods of southward IMF conditions were
observed throughout the UT day. The solar wind speed is expected
to decline to background levels over 12-14 Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 11 Jan : A K
Australian Region 9 33221223
Cocos Island 5 22221211
Darwin 9 33121223
Townsville 9 33221223
Learmonth 8 33221222
Alice Springs 9 33221223
Gingin 8 32221223
Canberra 8 23221223
Hobart 9 33221223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jan :
Macquarie Island 8 22232222
Casey 31 46552333
Mawson 19 44432342
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1000 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jan 12 G0
13 Jan 8 G0
14 Jan 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 11-Jan. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1-G2 observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 12-14 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 12-14
Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jan 118
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 84
Jan 71
Feb 72
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jan 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Jan 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Jan 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on
10 January and is current for 11-13 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 11-Jan were near predicted
monthly values to 40% enhanced during local night hours. Sporadic
E was observed at Townsville. MUFs are generally expected to
be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 12-14 Jan.
Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jan
Speed: 382 km/sec Density: 6.8 p/cc Temp: 97400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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