[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 January 23 issued 2331 UT on 10 Jan 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 11 10:31:07 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JANUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JANUARY - 13 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jan: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5.2 0016UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.1 0216UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.7 0242UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.1 1108UT possible lower European
M1.4 1728UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.2 1748UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
X1.1 2247UT probable all East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jan: 193/145
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan
Activity R1-R2,chance R3 R1-R2,chance R3 R1-R2,chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 192/144 190/143 188/141
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-Jan reached the R3 level
due to an short duration X1 flare from AR3186(N25E68, beta).
There are currently 8 numbered solar regions on the solar disk,
with two additional regions AR3185(N24W09, beta), a small region
which is growing and AR3187(N16E20) currently just a small single
spot. There are four active regions, AR3181(S19W50, beta-gamma),
AR3182(S18E05, beta-gamma-delta), AR3184(S13E58, beta), and AR3186(N25E68,
beta). Solar region AR3186 also produced an R2 (M5) flare and
an R1 (M1), three R1 (M1) flares were produced by AR3184. The
R1 (M2) flare was from AR3181. None of the flares appeared to
have associated CMEs. AR3181 and AR3182 are the two largest spot
regions. AR3181 has shown growth in its leader spots and AR3182
has shown decay in its trailer spots. AR3184 and AR3186 have
shown no significant apparent change in area though both these
regions have a reasonably far eastward location making assessment
difficult. Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over
11-13 Jan, with the chance of further isolated R3 events. From
about 10/1700UT the solar background X-ray flux appeared to be
declining slightly, until the X1 flare event was observed. No
Earth directed CMEs have been observed. Frequent narrow CMEs
were observed off the northeast solar limb perhaps some of these
associated with activity from AR3186. A new small region maybe
rotating onto the solar disk at solar latitude S22, producing
a minor flare at 10/1218UT. A solar proton enhancement of 1.1PFUs
was observed at 10/055UT probably from the M2.2 flare on 09-Jan
which briefly exhibited a parallel ribbon structure in GONG H-alpha
imagery. The solar wind speed on UT day 10-Jan showed a mildly
increasing trend due to a weak coronal hole wind stream, ranging
from 314 to 416 km/s, and is currently near 400 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT, and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +8 to -8 nT, with
a mildly southward interval 10/12-17UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 10 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 21112222
Cocos Island 3 11111211
Darwin 5 21111222
Townsville 5 21111222
Learmonth 6 22112222
Alice Springs 5 21111222
Gingin 6 22112222
Canberra 5 21112212
Hobart 6 22112312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jan :
Macquarie Island 6 21103312
Casey 20 34543223
Mawson 14 33223334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 1001 1231
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jan 10 G0
12 Jan 14 G0
13 Jan 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 09-Jan. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 11-13 Jan. A northern hemisphere coronal hole induce mild
increase in geomagnetic activity on 11 Jan. A weak CME may arrive
late in the UT day on 11-Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jan Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 11-13
Jan. There is a chance for degraded conditions at high latitudes
over 11-12 Jan during local night hours. Shortwave fadeouts are
probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jan 126
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 84
Jan 71
Feb 72
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jan 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Jan 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Jan 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on
10 January and is current for 11-13 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 10-Jan were near predicted
monthly values to 30% enhanced during local night hours. Strong
sporadic E was observed at Norfolk Island and Townsville. MUFs
are generally expected to be near predicted monthly values to
15% enhanced over 11-13 Jan. Some southern Australian region
sites are currently depressed 10-15% after local dawn which is
not expected to persist. There is a chance of mild degradation
in HF conditions during local night over 11-12 Jan. A HF fadeout
impacting lower frequencies was observed 10/2245-2300UT for east
coast Australia. Further shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jan
Speed: 383 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 55500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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