[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 09 January 23 issued 2330 UT on 09 Jan 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 10 10:30:59 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JANUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JANUARY - 12 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jan: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0103UT possible lower West Pacific
M2.2 0901UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.0 1322UT possible lower European
X1.9 1850UT probable all East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jan: 191/143
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan
Activity R1-R2,chance R3 R1-R2,chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 192/144 190/143 190/143
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 09-Jan reached the R3 level
due to the X1.9 flare from AR3184(S13E71, beta). The R3 flare
was impulsive implying an associated CME was unlikely and the
solar regions location is currently far to the east - a non Earth
directed CME longitude. There are currently 6 numbered solar
regions on the solar disk, of these three solar regions are of
significance for flare production, AR3184, AR3181(S19W37, beta-gamma)
and AR3182(S18E18, beta-delta). Solar region AR3184 is currently
the most flare active, also producing the M1 flare 09/0102UT,
and 5 C class flares, the largest a C7.8 at 09/1505UT. AR3182
only produced a single C class flare. Solar region AR3181 produced
the M2 flare at 09/0901UT and the M1 flare at 09/1322UT. Solar
region AR3181 is growing, and AR3182 is showing decline in its
trailers. Solar region AR3184 appears stable in area though proximity
to the eastern solar limb makes assessment difficult. A new solar
region on the northeastern solar limb at N25 produced a C flare
at 09/2049UT. Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels
over 10-12 Jan, with the chance of further isolated R3 events.
A southwest directed CME has been observed from 09/1012UT in
LASCO C2. Some plasma motion was also evident in SDO193 imagery
near AR3181 from 09/09-10UT. Assuming the CME is associated with
this flare and plasma motion, event modelling predicts a glancing
blow with a weak shock arrival late in the UT day on 11-Jan to
early 12-Jan. The solar wind speed on UT day 09-Jan was mildly
elevated with a decreasing trend, ranging from 326 to 466 km/s,
and is currently near 314 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -5 nT. A northern hemisphere coronal hole
may mildly increase the solar wind speed from 10-Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 09 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 21111111
Cocos Island 1 11101000
Darwin 5 21111312
Townsville 4 21112112
Learmonth 4 20111122
Alice Springs 3 21111111
Gingin 5 30111122
Canberra 2 10111111
Hobart 4 22111211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jan :
Macquarie Island 3 20111111
Casey 16 43532222
Mawson 14 42323242
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2221 3211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jan 10 G0
11 Jan 10 G0
12 Jan 14 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 09-Jan. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 10-12 Jan. A northern hemisphere coronal hole induce mild
increase in geomagnetic activity over 10-11 Jan. A weak CME may
arrive late in the UT day on 11-Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Jan Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 10-12
Jan. There is a chance for degraded conditions at high latitudes
over 10-12 Jan during local night hours. Shortwave fadeouts are
probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jan 118
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-30%.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 84
Jan 71
Feb 72
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jan 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Jan 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Jan 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 4 was issued on
8 January and is current for 8-10 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 09-Jan were near predicted
monthly values to 25% enhanced. A fadeout was observed at Niue
09/1850-1920UT. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values to 15% enhanced over 10-12 Jan. There is a chance of mild
degradation in HF conditions during local night over 10-12 Jan.
Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jan
Speed: 415 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 106000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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