[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 January 23 issued 2331 UT on 08 Jan 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 9 10:31:04 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JANUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JANUARY - 11 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jan: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 0854UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.4 0949UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.4 1508UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.0 1911UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jan: 184/137
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 185/138 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 08-Jan was at the R1 level,
due to four low level M-class flares from newly numbered region
AR3184 (S13E85, beta). Several C-class flares were also observed,
all of which originated from AR3182 (S18E29, gamma) and AR3184.
There are currently six numbered sunspot regions visible on the
solar disk. AR3184 recently rotated onto the solar disk and appears
stable. AR3181 (S19W26, beta-gamma) has exhibited some spot growth
in its main spots, whilst its trailer spots have decayed. AR3182
has decreased in magnetic complexity and shown some decay in
its trailer spots. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. The background level of X-ray flux remains at C-class
levels. Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over
09-11 Jan. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. A southeast
CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from
08/1836UT. This is likely associated with an eruption visible
in GOES-SUVI 304 imagery at 08/1821UT off the southeast limb.
This CME is not considered geoeffective. The solar wind speed
on UT day 08-Jan was elevated with a decreasing trend, ranging
from 395 to 460 km/s, and is currently near 400 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT, and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -6 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to continue decreasing on 09-Jan. A northern
hemisphere coronal hole may increase the solar wind speed from
10-Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 08 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 22122111
Cocos Island 3 22101110
Darwin 5 22122111
Townsville 7 23123111
Learmonth 6 23122111
Alice Springs 4 22122101
Gingin 5 22123110
Canberra 6 22223111
Hobart 8 23233111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jan :
Macquarie Island 19 22256210
Casey 21 45533221
Mawson 17 44333332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 0210 0221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jan 5 G0
10 Jan 10 G0
11 Jan 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 08-Jan. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1
observed at Casey and isolated periods of G1-G2 observed at Macquarie
Island. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 09-11 Jan.
A northern hemisphere coronal hole may lead to an increase in
geomagnetic activity from 10-Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 09-11
Jan. There is a chance for degraded conditions at high latitudes
over 10-11 Jan during local night hours. Shortwave fadeouts are
probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jan 120
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 84
Jan 71
Feb 72
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jan 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Jan 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Jan 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 4 was issued on
8 January and is current for 8-10 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 08-Jan were enhanced
by 15-20%. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15%
enhanced over 09-11 Jan. There is a chance of mild degradation
in HF conditions during local night over 10-11 Jan. Shortwave
fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jan
Speed: 439 km/sec Density: 6.2 p/cc Temp: 136000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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