[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 January 23 issued 2330 UT on 07 Jan 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 8 10:30:52 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JANUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JANUARY - 10 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jan: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.6 0052UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jan: 179/132
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 178/131 178/131
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 07-Jan was at the R1 level,
due to a M1.6 flare at 07/0052UT from AR3182 (S18E42, beta-gamma-delta).
Several C-class flares were also observed, including a C8.7 flare
at 07/1654UT from AR3182. There are currently five numbered sunspot
regions visible on the solar disk. AR3182 is the most magnetically
complex region and has shown growth in its trailer spots. AR3181
(S19W13, beta) has exhibited spot development over the 24-hour
period. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
The background level of X-ray flux remains at C-class levels.
Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over 08-10 Jan.
No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed
on UT day 07-Jan was elevated with a decreasing trend, ranging
from 405 to 495 km/s, and is currently near 455 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT, and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +7 to -7 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to remain elevated over 08-10 Jan. There
is a chance of a weak CME impact to Earth's magnetosphere on
08-Jan from a CME first observed on 04-Jan. A northern hemisphere
coronal hole may increase the solar wind speed from 10-Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 07 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 22201222
Cocos Island 3 11111210
Darwin 4 12111212
Townsville 6 22211222
Learmonth 5 22101222
Alice Springs 5 12201222
Gingin 5 22101222
Canberra 5 13201221
Hobart 6 23201221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jan :
Macquarie Island 3 12200220
Casey 31 36643332
Mawson 17 44412333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1000 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jan 16 G0
09 Jan 10 G0
10 Jan 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 07-Jan. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with a period of G2 observed
at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 08-10 Jan.
There is a chance for a weak impact from a recent CME on 08-Jan.
A northern hemisphere coronal hole may lead to an increase in
geomagnetic activity from 10-Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 08-10
Jan. There is a chance for degraded conditions at high latitudes
on 08-Jan during local night hours. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jan 104
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 84
Jan 71
Feb 72
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jan 95 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Jan 95 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Jan 95 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on
6 January and is current for 6-8 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 07-Jan were near predicted
monthly values to 25% enhanced. Spread F was observed at Hobart
during local night. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values to 15% enhanced over 08-10 Jan. There is a chance of mild
degradation in HF conditions during local night on 08-Jan. Shortwave
fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jan
Speed: 486 km/sec Density: 8.1 p/cc Temp: 530000 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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