[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 January 23 issued 2330 UT on 06 Jan 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 7 10:30:52 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JANUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JANUARY - 09 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jan: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1.2 0057UT probable all West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jan: 172/126
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 170/124 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 06-Jan was at the R3 level,
due to a X1.2 flare at 06/0057UT from AR3182 (S18E55, beta-gamma).
Several low level C-class flares were also observed, most of
which originated from AR3183 (S18W21, beta). There are currently
five numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3181
(S19W00, beta-gamma) and AR3183 have both exhibited spot development
over the 24-hour period. AR3182 has shown some growth and increased
in magnetic complexity as it continues to rotate onto the disk.
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. The
background level of X-ray flux is currently at C-class levels.
Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over 07-09 Jan.
Several CMEs were observed, but none are considered geoeffective.
No CME was observed in association with the aforementioned X
flare. The solar wind speed on UT day 06-Jan was elevated with
an initial increasing trend before decreasing late in the UT
day. The solar wind speed ranged from 435 to 540 km/s, and is
currently near 495 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 12 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +7 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain elevated over 07-09 Jan. There is a chance of a weak
CME impact to Earth's magnetosphere on 08-Jan from a CME first
observed on 04-Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 06 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 21111012
Cocos Island 2 21110011
Darwin 4 22111012
Townsville 6 32111122
Learmonth 6 31212022
Alice Springs 3 21101012
Gingin 3 11111022
Canberra 3 21111012
Hobart 3 11211012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 11110012
Casey 20 44533223
Mawson 11 33322133
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 0111 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jan 8 G0
08 Jan 16 G0
09 Jan 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 06-Jan. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 07-09 Jan. There is a chance for a weak impact from a recent
CME on 08-Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 07-09
Jan. There is a chance for degraded conditions at high latitudes
on 08-Jan during local night hours. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jan 65
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 84
Jan 71
Feb 72
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jan 75 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jan 75 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jan 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on
6 January and is current for 6-8 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 06-Jan were near predicted
monthly values. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local
night. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
over 07-09 Jan. There is a chance of mild degradation in HF conditions
during local night on 08-Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jan
Speed: 373 km/sec Density: 10.5 p/cc Temp: 40500 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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