[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 January 23 issued 2331 UT on 05 Jan 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 6 10:31:24 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JANUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JANUARY - 08 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jan: 154/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan
Activity R0-R1,chance R2 R0-R1,chance R2 R0-R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 154/109 152/107 152/107
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 05-Jan was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. The largest flare was a C6.8 at
05/0914UT from a new solar region that has rotated onto the solar
disk, AR3182(S18E69, beta). This region also produced three other
minor C class events. Due to this regions proximity to the limb
it may be more magnetically complex than a simple beta (bipole)
configuration and is now the largest on the solar disk. Of the
regions already on the visible solar disk, AR3180(N20W06, beta-gamma)
is the most magnetically complex and solar region AR3177(S17W34,
beta) produced a single minor C class flare, and is now decaying.
Solar region AR3181(S19E15, beta) has shown growth. A new solar
region AR3183(S18W07), rapidly emerged near the centre of the
solar disk from 05/0700UT but has yet to produce any significant
flare activity. There are currently 6 solar regions on the visible
disk. No new Earth directed CMEs were observed. CMEs were observed
directly to the south from 05/08UT, and to the southwest from
04/22UT, but could not be correlated to any on disk activity.
Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 06-08 Jan,
with the chance of an R2 event. The solar wind speed on UT day
05-Jan exhibited an overall slow declining trend. The solar wind
speed ranged from 393 to 333 km/s, and is currently near 367
km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 20 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +15
to -13 nT. A southward interval of Bz was observed 05/11-15UT.
A weak CME which was observed on 04-Jan, possibly in association
with a C8.4 flare, may arrive on 08-Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 05 Jan : A K
Australian Region 8 12223322
Cocos Island 7 12122322
Darwin 7 12123311
Townsville 11 22223333
Learmonth 14 22224433
Alice Springs 8 12223322
Gingin 13 21224433
Canberra 9 12223323
Hobart 8 12223322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jan :
Macquarie Island 15 11125522
Casey 22 34543333
Mawson 18 23233354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 16 3444 3211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jan 10 G0
07 Jan 8 G0
08 Jan 16 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 05-Jan. In the Antarctic region G1 periods were
observed. A mild increase in geomagnetic activity was observed
due to declining influences from a coronal hole wind stream.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 06-08 Jan. There
is a chance for a weak impact from a recent CME on 08-Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jan Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: High latitude HF conditions on 05-Jan were mildly degraded.
Mildly degraded HF conditions expected to middle to high latitudes
early on 06-Jan then improving. Mostly normal HF conditions are
expected over 07-08 Jan. There is a chance for degraded conditions
at high latitudes on 08-Jan,during local night hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jan 88
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed 15-20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 84
Jan 71
Feb 72
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jan 55 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
07 Jan 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Jan 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 1 was issued on
5 January and is current for 6-8 Jan. ASWFC HF Communications
Warning 2 was issued on 5 January and is current for 6 Jan only.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region on
UT day 05-Jan were near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
Spread F observed at Niue during local night. Southern Australian
region MUFs are currently depressed 15-20% after local dawn this
morning and are expected to gradually recover during the local
day today. MUFs are generally expected to be near predicted monthly
values to 15% enhanced over 07-08 Jan. There is a chance for
mild degradation in HF conditions during local night on 08-Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jan
Speed: 406 km/sec Density: 8.0 p/cc Temp: 29300 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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