[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 04 January 23 issued 2330 UT on 04 Jan 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 5 10:30:45 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JANUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JANUARY - 07 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jan: 151/106
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 152/107 154/109 152/107
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 04-Jan was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. The largest flare was a long duration
multiple peak C8.4 flare at 04/1845UT, associated with a "S"
shaped flare along a neutral line to the south and east of region
AR3177(S17W21,alpha). This flare appears to be associated with
a weak predominately southward CME. Further event analysis will
be conducted as additional coronagraph images become available.
Solar region AR3179 has rotated over the northwest solar limb.
There are currently four numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. AR3177 is showing decline in its leader spots.
Solar region AR3181(S19E38, beta) has shown some growth. Other
regions show little change. A solar region that recently produced
CME activity from behind the southeast solar limb at S17 has
yet to rotate onto the solar disk. A solar filament located at
S40E20-S30W10 erupted at 04/0300-0400UT. This filament eruption
appeared to be associated with a faint narrow predominately southward
directed CME which is not considered geoeffective. A narrow westward
CME first visible at 04/0848UT could not be correlated to on
disk activity and is considered far side. At this stage it is
considered that there are no CMEs with a significantly Earth
directed component. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1
levels over 05-07 Jan. The solar wind speed on UT day 04-Jan
exhibited an over all declining trend. The solar wind speed ranged
from 364 to 461 km/s, and is currently near 380 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 19 nT, and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +17 to -13 nT. A
southward interval of Bz was observed 04/03-07UT. The DSCOVR
satellite solar wind data was not available 04/00-03UT. The enhanced
total interplanetary magnetic field and southward IMF interval
may be associated with the arrival of a slow CME observed on
30-Dec. The solar wind speed is now expected to decline as influences
from a coronal hole now located in the western solar hemisphere
abate.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 04 Jan : A K
Australian Region 13 43333222
Cocos Island 11 43223221
Darwin 13 43333222
Townsville 14 43333232
Learmonth 17 52334322
Alice Springs 12 42333222
Gingin 12 42333221
Canberra 13 43333222
Hobart 13 43333221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jan :
Macquarie Island 18 44533310
Casey 25 56333322
Mawson 39 56654322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 26
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1011 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jan 14 G0
06 Jan 10 G0
07 Jan 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 61 was issued on 31 December
and is current for 4-5 Jan. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 04-Jan. In the Antarctic region
G1-G2 periods were observed at Casey and Mawson. with an isolated
period of G1 at Macquarie Island. A mild increase in geomagnetic
activity was observed due to a coronal hole wind stream. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 05-07 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jan Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jan Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
06 Jan Normal Normal Fair-normal
07 Jan Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: High latitude HF conditions on 04-Jan were degraded.
Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 05-07 Jan.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jan 124
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15-25%.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-35%.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20-25%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 84
Jan 71
Feb 72
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jan 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Jan 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Jan 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 04-Jan were near predicted monthly values to
15-30% enhanced. Mild depressions were observed at Perth and
Learmonth after local dawn this morning with are not expected
to persist. MUFs are generally expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced over 05-07 Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jan
Speed: 395 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 85600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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