[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 January 23 issued 2331 UT on 03 Jan 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 4 10:31:03 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JANUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JANUARY - 06 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jan: 149/104
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 148/102 148/102 148/102
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 03-Jan was at the R0 level,
with several low level C-class flares. The largest flare was
a long duration C4.0 flare from an active region beyond the eastern
limb, peaking at 03/1036UT. The active region producing this
flare is expected to rotate onto the solar disk over 04-05 Jan.
There are currently five numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. AR3180 (N20E18, beta) is the largest active region
and has shown growth in its trailer spots. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels over 04-06 Jan. A southeast directed CME
was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from 03/0648UT.
This CME is likely associated with a C3.2 flare which occurred
just prior to the aforementioned long duration C-class flare
originating from beyond the eastern limb. This CME is therefore
considered farside and modelling confirms as not geoeffective.
A small filament eruption was observed from ~N31E29 at 03/1335UT
and a subsequent narrow CME visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 03/1412UT.
This CME is also not considered to be Earth-directed. No other
Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed
on UT day 03-Jan was elevated with an initial declining trend
before increasing late in the UT day. The solar wind speed ranged
from 370 to 445 km/s, and is currently near 445 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT, and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +7 to -5 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to continue to increase over 04-06 Jan
due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects from an equatorial
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 03 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 11111222
Cocos Island 4 20111221
Darwin 4 11111222
Townsville 6 21111223
Learmonth 4 11111222
Alice Springs 4 10111222
Gingin 4 21110222
Canberra 4 01110223
Hobart 3 01110222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jan :
Macquarie Island 3 01121112
Casey 17 35432232
Mawson 15 33213344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1111 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jan 16 G0, chance G1
05 Jan 16 G0, chance G1
06 Jan 10 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 61 was issued on 31 December
and is current for 4-5 Jan. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 03-Jan. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated
period of G1 observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 04-05 Jan, with a chance of G1 due to a coronal
hole wind stream from an equatorial coronal hole. In addition,
a slow weak CME may arrive early in the UT day on 04-Jan. G0
geomagnetic conditions are expected on 06-Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
05 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 04-06
Jan. HF conditions may become degraded at middle to high latitudes
04-05 Jan due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jan 119
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 84
Jan 71
Feb 72
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jan 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Jan 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Jan 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 03-Jan were near predicted monthly values to
20% enhanced during the local day and enhanced 20-30% during
local night hours. Sporadic E was observed at some middle latitude
sites. MUFs are generally expected to be near predicted monthly
values to 15% enhanced over 04-06 Jan. Degraded HF conditions
may be experienced over 04-05 Jan for the southern Australian
region during local night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jan
Speed: 487 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 201000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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