[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 January 23 issued 2331 UT on 02 Jan 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 3 10:31:19 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JANUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JANUARY - 05 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jan: 146/100
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 02-Jan was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. There are currently five numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3176 (N20W25, beta-gamma)
produced the largest flare, a C9.4 at 02/0621UT, and has shown
some minor growth in its trailer spots. AR3180 (N20E31, beta-gamma)
was responsible for all other low level C-class flaring and has
also shown growth in its trailer spots. Both AR3176 and AR3180
have increased in magnetic complexity over the UT day. All other
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 03-05 Jan. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 02-Jan
was elevated with a declining trend, ranging from 420 to 535
km/s, and is currently near 445 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +4 to -4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to continue to decrease on 03-Jan, then increase over 04-05 Jan
due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects from an equatorial
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 02 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 22112122
Cocos Island 5 22112122
Darwin 5 22112112
Townsville 6 22212122
Learmonth 6 22123112
Alice Springs 5 22112112
Gingin 8 22222223
Canberra 5 22112112
Hobart 5 22112122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jan :
Macquarie Island 5 22123101
Casey 20 45433223
Mawson 19 34333235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11 2223 2343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jan 8 G0
04 Jan 16 G0, chance G1
05 Jan 16 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 61 was issued on 31 December
and is current for 4-5 Jan. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 02-Jan. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated
periods of G1 observed at Casey and Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 03-Jan. Geomagnetic activity may increase to
G0-G1 from late 04-Jan to 05-Jan due to a coronal hole wind stream
from an equatorial coronal hole. The geomagnetic 27 day recurrence
pattern for this hole is not that strong. In addition, a slow
weak CME may arrive early in the UT day on 04-Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
05 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected on 03-Jan. HF conditions
may become degraded at middle to high latitudes 04-05 Jan.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jan 120
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 84
Jan 71
Feb 72
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jan 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Jan 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Jan 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 02-Jan were near predicted monthly values to
15% enhanced during the local day and enhanced 15-40% during
local night hours. Sporadic E was observed at some middle latitude
sites. MUFs are generally expected to be near predicted monthly
values to 15% enhanced. Degraded HF conditions may be experienced
over 04-05 Jan for the southern Australian region during local
night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jan
Speed: 548 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 115000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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