[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 January 23 issued 2330 UT on 01 Jan 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 2 10:30:58 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JANUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JANUARY - 04 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jan: 153/108
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 158/112 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 01-Jan was at the R0 level.
The more recently flare active solar regions AR3176(N20W10, beta),
and AR3180(N20E46, beta) are now declining in area. Only low
C level flare activity has been observed, with the largest flare
a C3.7 at 01/0228UT from AR3176. There are currently six numbered
regions on the solar disk. Other solar regions are also either
stable or in decay. The background solar X-ray flux is currently
declining below C1. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0
level over 02-Jan to 04-Jan. The solar wind speed on UT day 01-Jan
was declining ranging from 468 to 622 km/s, and is currently
near 486 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 6 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+4 to -5 nT. The solar wind is expected to continue to decline.
An isolated equatorial coronal hole is visible at the solar central
meridian. Solar wind speed may increase from late 04-Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 01 Jan : A K
Australian Region 10 22222333
Cocos Island 9 22222233
Darwin 9 22222233
Townsville 9 22222233
Learmonth 11 32222333
Alice Springs 9 22222233
Gingin 11 32222333
Canberra 10 22222333
Hobart 14 23333333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jan :
Macquarie Island 14 23243333
Casey 38 56633344
Mawson 31 45433364
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 49 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13 2322 3334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jan 8 G0
03 Jan 8 G0
04 Jan 16 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 61 was issued on 31 December
and is current for 4-5 Jan. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 01-Jan. G0-G2 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with periods
of G1 and G2 observed at Casey and Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 02-Jan to 03-Jan. Geomagnetic activity may
increase to G0-G1 from late 04-Jan to 05-Jan due to an coronal
hole wind stream from an equatorial coronal hole. The geomagnetic
27 day recurrence pattern for this hole is not that strong. In
addition, a slow weak CME may arrive early in the UT day on 04-Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jan Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected over 02-Jan to
03-Jan. HF conditions may become degraded at middle to high latitudes
04-05 Jan.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jan 112
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15-25%.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 84
Jan 71
Feb 72
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jan 80 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jan 80 Near predicted monthly values
04 Jan 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 01-Jan were near predicted monthly values during
the local day and enhanced 15-40% during local night hours. Strong
sporadic E was observed early in the UT day at some middle latitude
sites. MUFs are generally expected to be near predicted monthly
values. Degraded HF conditions may be experienced 04-05 Jan for
the southern Australian region during local night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Dec
Speed: 567 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 203000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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