[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 31 December 22 issued 2331 UT on 31 Dec 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 1 10:31:06 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 DECEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 JANUARY - 03 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Dec: 165/119
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 31-Dec was at the R0 level.
Solar region AR3176(N20W01, beta) which recently produced the
two low level M class flares has reportedly declined in area
and magnetically simplified. The largest flare in the past 24
hours was a C9.1 at 31/2148UT from AR3180(N17E55, beta) which
has grown slightly. With the decay of some minor regions there
are currently five numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar
disk. Solar regions AR3176 and AR3180 are currently the most
likely sources for R1 flare activity, although overall the flare
probability has reduced. From STEREO-A spaced based coronagraph
a slow CME was associated with at least one of yesterdays M flares
(there may be two overlapping CME events). However no further
LASCO imagery has become available. Event analysis and subsequent
modelling using STEREO-A only and treating the CME as a single
event suggests a weak CME arrival early on 04-Dec. CME activity
on 31-Dec is considered minor and not Earth directed. A minor
steep southwest CME was observed from 31/0125UT, and a steep
northwest CME was observed from 31/0200UT. These two CMEs could
not be correlated to on disk activity. A southwest CME was observed
in LASCO C2 from 31/0800UT associated with an erupting prominence
on the southwest solar limb. Solar activity is expected to be
at the R0-R1 level over 01-Jan to 03-Jan. The solar wind speed
on UT day 31-Dec was variable ranging from 517 to 670 km/s, and
is currently near 570 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +6 to -6 nT, with frequent very mild southward
fluctuations during the UT day. The increase in solar wind speed
is from a coronal hole now located in the solar northwest quadrant
and the wind speed is expected to gradually decline. An isolated
equatorial coronal hole is also visible in the eastern solar
hemisphere approaching the solar central meridian. There is no
sign of the possible return of previously flaring region AR3165.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 31 Dec : A K
Australian Region 10 33222223
Cocos Island 8 22222313
Darwin 9 33212223
Townsville 12 33223233
Learmonth 10 33222223
Alice Springs 9 23222223
Gingin 12 33222324
Canberra 12 33322233
Hobart 13 33323233
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Dec :
Macquarie Island 18 34434323
Casey 27 55533333
Mawson 43 45444447
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 60 (Unsettled)
Hobart 77 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 28 4343 5542
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jan 8 G0
02 Jan 8 G0
03 Jan 12 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 61 was issued on 31 December
and is current for 4-5 Jan. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 31-Dec. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with periods
of G1 observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 01-Jan to 03-Jan. Geomagnetic activity may increase to G0-G1
from 04-Jan to 05-Jan due to an coronal hole wind stream
from an equatorial coronal hole. The induced geomagnetic activity
from this holes previous 27 day rotation was not that strong.
In addition, a slow weak CME may arrive early in the UT day on
04-Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected over 01-Jan to
03-Jan. HF conditions may become degraded at middle to high latitudes
04-05 Jan.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Dec 68
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 77
Dec 70
Jan 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jan 80 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jan 80 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jan 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 107 was issued on
30 December and is current for 30 Dec to 1 Jan. Maximum usable
frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 31-Dec
were generally depressed 15%. Strong sporadic E was observed
at Norfolk Island. MUFs are generally expected to be near predicted
monthly values with brief mild depressions after local dawn for
the southern Australian region. Isolated minor fadeouts are possible.
Degraded HF conditions may be experienced 04-05 Jan for the southern
Australian region during local night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Dec
Speed: 513 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 230000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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