[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 23 February 23 issued 2330 UT on 23 Feb 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 24 10:30:51 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 FEBRUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 FEBRUARY - 26 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Feb: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.5 0614UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.0 0848UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.3 0900UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Feb: 148/102
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Feb 25 Feb 26 Feb
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 148/102 146/100 146/100
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 23-Feb was at the R1 level,
due to three M-Class flares. An M1.5 flare at 23/0614UT and an
M1.3 flare at 23/0900UT produced by AR3235 (N19E11, beta), and
an M1.0 flare at 23/0848UT produced by AR3234 (N25E33, beta).
There are currently four numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk and two unnumbered regions. AR3234 and AR2325
both showed spot development over the UT Day and were both responsible
for M-class flares. All other numbered sunspot regions were in
decay. Two unnumbered sunspot regions are visible, one at around
S24E23 with beta magnetic characteristics and one at around S09E40
with alpha magnetic characteristics. Both unnumbered regions
showed spot development over the UT day. Solar activity is expected
to be at R1-R2 levels over 24-26 Feb. Several CMEs were observed
over the UT day but none are considered geoeffective. A filament
eruption is visible on the solar disk at around N05W10 from 23/1339UT
in SDO, GOES SUVI and H-alpha imagery. This lift off corresponds
with a faint CME which appears to be mostly directed to the north
east in LASCO imagery and to the north in STEREO-A imagery, suggesting
this CME has no significant geoeffective component. The other
CMEs visible on 23-Feb are narrow and directed to the north or
northeast and are not considered geoeffective. The solar wind
speed on UT day 23-Feb increased, ranging from 450 to 598 km/s,
and is currently near 550 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +7 to -10 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain elevated over 24-26 Feb due to a combination of high
speed wind stream effects from a large coronal hole at high latitudes
in the southern hemisphere and a large equatorial coronal hole
currently rotating towards a geoeffective position. There is
a chance of an enhancement in wind speed on 26-Feb due to the
arrival of the second coronal hole high speed wind stream combined
with a possible glancing impact from a CME first observed on
22-Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Feb : A K
Australian Region 14 33233333
Cocos Island 11 33222422
Darwin 13 33233323
Townsville 14 33233333
Learmonth 17 43233433
Alice Springs 14 33233333
Gingin 16 43223433
Canberra 14 33233333
Hobart 15 33333333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Feb :
Macquarie Island 24 33345533
Casey 28 45633333
Mawson 52 54533765
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 73 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1011 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Feb 10 G0, slight chance of G1
25 Feb 10 G0, slight chance of G1
26 Feb 15 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on 23-Feb. G1 conditions were observed in the Antarctic
region, with an isolated period of G2 at both Casey and Mawson
and an isolated period of G3 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 24-26 Feb, with a slight chance of G1 due to
ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream effects over 24-25
Feb and a chance of G1 on 26-Feb due to the combined effects
of a large equatorial coronal hole entering a geoeffective position
and a possible glancing impact from a CME first observed on 22-Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 24-26
Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Feb 118
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Feb 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Feb 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Feb 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on
21 February and is current for 22-24 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on 23-Feb were 15-20% enhanced.
Mild sporadic E was observed across the Australian region, mostly
during local night. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local
night. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced over 24-26 Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Feb
Speed: 442 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 123000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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