[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 24 February 23 issued 2331 UT on 24 Feb 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 25 10:31:05 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 FEBRUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 FEBRUARY - 27 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Feb: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 1715UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M3.7 2030UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Feb: 164/118
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Feb 26 Feb 27 Feb
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 24-Feb was at the R1 level,
due to 2 M-class flares. An M3.7 flare at 24/2030UT from AR3229
alongside a filament eruption, and an M1.1 flare at 24/1715UT
from AR3235. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on
the solar disk. AR3229 (N26W33, beta) and AR3236 (S26E10, beta)
have grown and AR3224 (N25E21, beta-gamma-delta) has been unstable.
All other sunspot regions are either table or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over 25-27 Feb. Several
CMEs have been observed over 24-Feb. Two consecutive CMEs were
observed from the northeast quadrant from 24/1325UT and 24/1426UT,
but are considered to be farside and not geoeffective. A CME
in the northwest quadrant was observed from 24/2048UT in association
with the M3.7 flare and a large filament eruption. There is a
chance of a glancing blow from late 27-Feb to early 28-Feb, however
confidence is low as there is currently only limited coronagraph
imagery available. The solar wind speed on UT day 24-Feb had
a decreasing trend ranging from 616 to 446 km/s, and is currently
near 450 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+9 to -4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to increase over
25-27 Feb due to an equatorial coronal hole high speed wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 24 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 22222001
Cocos Island 3 21212000
Darwin 4 21222101
Townsville 5 22222111
Learmonth 5 32222001
Alice Springs 4 22222001
Gingin 4 31212001
Canberra 4 22212001
Hobart 4 22311001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Feb :
Macquarie Island 3 22211000
Casey 19 46432001
Mawson 10 33324100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Hobart 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 18 4323 3443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Feb 10 G0
26 Feb 15 G0, slight chance G1
27 Feb 18 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: G0 Geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on 24-Feb. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G2 at Casey.
Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 25-26 Feb,
with a chance of G1 geomagnetic conditions on 27 Feb due to an
equatorial coronal hole high speed wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
27 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 25-26
Feb, with some degradations possible on 27-Feb due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Feb 125
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Feb 125 20-30% above predicted values
26 Feb 125 20-30% above predicted values
27 Feb 125 20-30% above predicted values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 22 was issued on
24 February and is current for 25-27 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on 24-Feb were 25-40% enhanced,
particularly after local dawn. Sporadic-E was observed at Hobart
during local night. MUFs are expected to be 20-30% above predicted
monthly values over 25-27 Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Feb
Speed: 544 km/sec Density: 10.2 p/cc Temp: 331000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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