[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 22 February 23 issued 2330 UT on 22 Feb 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 23 10:30:49 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 FEBRUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 FEBRUARY - 25 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Feb: R0
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 0506UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.7 1350UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Feb: 152/107
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Feb 24 Feb 25 Feb
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 148/102 148/102
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 22-Feb was at the R1 level,
due to two M-Class flares. An M1.4 flare at 22/0512UT and an
M2.6 flare at 22/1350UT, both produced by AR3234 (N26E47, beta).
There are currently six numbered sunspot regions visible on the
solar disk, however AR3220 (S12W83, alpha), AR3226 (N10W84, alpha)
and AR3231 (N22W77, beta) are currently rotating off the solar
disk. AR3234 is the largest and most significant sunspot region
on the solar disk, and has shown development over the UT-day.
AR3230 (S23E21, beta) also showed development in its trailer
spots. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over 23-25 Feb.
Several CMEs were observed over the UT-day. A northeast directed
CME was observed in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A imagery from 22/1436UT.
An associated filament eruption is visible in GOES SUVI, SDO
and H-Alpha imagery from 22/1310UT. Modelling suggests a chance
of a glancing impact with Earth on 26/0800UT +/- 12 hours, however,
the majority of the ejected material is directed above and behind
the Earth so any impact will be light. All other CMEs observed
on 22-Feb are not considered geoeffective. The solar wind speed
on UT day 22-Feb increased slightly, ranging from 397 to 511
km/s, and is currently near 455 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +9 to -9 nT. A mild increase in the solar wind
speed is expected over 23-24 Feb due to high speed wind stream
effects from a large coronal hole at high latitude in the southern
hemisphere. A stronger increase in the solar wind speed is possible
on 25-Feb due to high speed wind stream effects from a large
equatorial coronal hole rotating towards a geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 22 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 21212212
Cocos Island 4 11211211
Darwin 6 21222212
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 5 21212212
Alice Springs 6 21222212
Gingin 5 21211222
Canberra 5 21212212
Hobart 5 21211212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Feb :
Macquarie Island 5 10113212
Casey 13 34332223
Mawson 18 32323354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 17 2334 5222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Feb 8 G0
24 Feb 8 G0
25 Feb 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on 22-Feb. G0 conditions were observed in the Antarctic
region, with an isolated period of G1 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 23-25 Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 23-25
Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Feb 111
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on
21 February and is current for 22-24 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Southern Australian region on 22-Feb were near
monthly predicted values to 20% enhanced. MUFs in the Northern
Australian region were 15-20% enhanced. Significant sporadic
E was observed at Brisbane and Norfolk Island during local night.
Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
over 23-25 Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Feb
Speed: 414 km/sec Density: 7.7 p/cc Temp: 112000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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