[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 21 February 23 issued 2331 UT on 21 Feb 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 22 10:31:23 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 FEBRUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 FEBRUARY - 24 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Feb: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.6 1111UT possible lower European
M4.7 1123UT possible lower European
M5.0 2017UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Feb: 161/115
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Feb 23 Feb 24 Feb
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 158/112 154/109 152/107
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 21-Feb was at the R2 level,
due to a M5.0 flare from AR3234 (N26E58, beta) at 21/2017UT.
The same region also produced a M4.7 flare at 21/1123UT. There
are currently seven numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar
disk. AR3234 has exhibited spot development over the 24-hour
period. AR3229 (N26E06, beta) has shown some minor decay in its
trailer spots. AR3234 and AR3229 currently present the highest
potential for further flaring events. Regions AR3220 (S14W81,
alpha) and AR3226 (N10W73, alpha) will soon rotate over the western
limb. AR3231 (N22W66, beta) and AR3230 (S23E32, alpha) have shown
growth over the UT day. All other sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2
levels over 22-24 Feb. Several CMEs were observed, but none are
considered geoeffective. A southwest CME was observed, visible
in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from 21/0912UT. This CME is considered
to be a farside event and therefore not geoeffective. A slow
northwest directed CME, visible from 21/0400UT was modelled and
is also considered to be missing the Earth. The solar wind speed
on UT day 21-Feb was mostly stable, ranging from 370 to 450 km/s,
and is currently near 430 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 15 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +9 to -12 nT. A sustained period of southward
IMF conditions was observed from 21/0500UT to 21/1100UT. The
solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated over 22-24 Feb
due to influence from a small coronal hole in the solar western
hemisphere.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Feb: G1
Estimated Indices 21 Feb : A K
Australian Region 12 23244212
Cocos Island 5 22222110
Darwin 11 23234212
Townsville 15 23245212
Learmonth 12 32244212
Alice Springs 12 23244212
Gingin 15 32354102
Canberra 12 23244112
Hobart 13 23344112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Feb :
Macquarie Island 29 13566111
Casey 24 46434212
Mawson 31 45465311
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 0022 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Feb 12 G0
23 Feb 8 G0
24 Feb 8 G0
COMMENT: G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 21-Feb, due to an isolated G1 period observed
at Townsville. G0-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 22-24 Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 22-24
Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Feb 134
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30-35% over the UT day.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20-40% during local night and after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20-25% during local night and after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Feb 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
23 Feb 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Feb 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on 21-Feb were 15-25% enhanced. MUFs are expected to be
near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 22-24 Feb.
Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Feb
Speed: 419 km/sec Density: 9.3 p/cc Temp: 130000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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