[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 20 February 23 issued 2331 UT on 20 Feb 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 21 10:31:16 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 FEBRUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 FEBRUARY - 23 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Feb: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4.4 1458UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Feb: 160/114
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Feb 22 Feb 23 Feb
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 158/112 156/110 152/107
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 20-Feb was at the R1 level
due to a M4.4 flare from an unnumbered active region in the northeast
quadrant at 20/1458UT. There are currently six numbered sunspot
regions visible on the solar disk and two unnumbered regions.
AR3217 (S12W84, alpha) is stable and will soon rotate over the
western limb. AR3229 (N26E19, beta) produced only low level C-class
flares and decayed over the UT day. An unnumbered region recently
appeared at N17E09 (alpha) and has since decayed. A second unnumbered
region recently rotated over the eastern limb at N26E85 (beta),
producing the aforementioned R1 flare and appears stable. All
other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R1 level over 21-23 Feb, with a chance
of R2. Several CMEs were observed, but none are considered geoeffective.
The solar wind speed on UT day 20-Feb increased, ranging from
325 to 490 km/s, and is currently near 420 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 16 nT, and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +10 to -7 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain elevated over 21-23 Feb due to influence
from a small equatorial coronal hole rotating towards a geoeffective
position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 20 Feb : A K
Australian Region 7 11232222
Cocos Island 6 11132221
Darwin 7 11232222
Townsville 8 22232222
Learmonth 11 22243223
Alice Springs 7 11232222
Gingin 7 21232222
Canberra 6 01232122
Hobart 7 11232222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Feb :
Macquarie Island 3 01111122
Casey 19 34543222
Mawson 12 22334321
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2001 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Feb 18 G0, chance G1
22 Feb 12 G0
23 Feb 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 20-Feb. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 21-23 Feb, with a chance of G1 on 21-Feb due to a possible
glancing impact from a CME first observed on 17-Feb. A high speed
solar wind stream from a small equatorial coronal hole may contribute
to geomagnetic activity on 21-Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal to fair HF conditions are expected on 21-Feb
for middle to high latitudes due to possible increased geomagnetic
activity from a glancing CME impact and influence from a small
equatorial coronal hole. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected
over 22-23 Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Feb 117
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 55% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Feb 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
22 Feb 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
23 Feb 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 19 was issued
on 17 February and is current for 19-21 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on 20-Feb were near predicted
monthly values to 25% enhanced. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 21-23 Feb, with
mild degradations possible over 21-22 Feb due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Feb
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 36700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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