[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 19 February 23 issued 2330 UT on 19 Feb 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 20 10:30:54 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 FEBRUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 FEBRUARY - 22 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Feb: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Feb: 169/123
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Feb 21 Feb 22 Feb
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 150/105 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 19-Feb was at the R0 level.
Solar region AR3226(N10W36, beta) produced several C flares,
the largest a C6.8 at 19/0817UT. This region is now showing decline
in its trailer spots. The region that produced the recent X2
flare, region AR3229(N23E39, beta), is showing growth in its
intermediate spots. This region is currently not very magnetically
complex, exhibiting only a bipolar magnetic pattern and has
been relatively flare quiet over the past 24 hours, producing
two minor C class flares. A new region is rotating onto the solar
disk at solar latitude N25 and appears to be the source of at
least one of the C class flares observed late in the UT day on
19-Feb. Solar region AR3225(S21W80, beta) showed slight development
in its intermediate spots as it rotates off disk. There are currently
7 solar regions on the disk, a new minor region AR3232 is emerging
and growing in the solar northwest quadrant. Solar activity is
expected to be at the R1 level with the chance of an isolated
R2 level event. Several CMEs were observed on 19-Feb, but none
are considered geoeffective. A southwest directed CME which was
in progress early on 19-Feb, appearing to start from mid to late
18-Feb in LASCO C2 imagery could not be correlated with any on
disk activity. Later another southwest CME was observed over
the period 19/11-16UT associated with an erupting solar prominence
on the western solar limb. A 20 degree long solar filament located
at N35E05 was active from 19/0930UT in GONG H-alpha imagery partially
erupting, but no CME appeared to be associated. The solar wind
speed on UT day 19-Feb showed a declining trend, ranging from
330 to 417 km/s, and is currently near 318 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT, and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -5 nT. The anticipated increase
in solar wind speed on 19-Feb did not eventuate. An enhancement
in the solar wind speed remains expected from mid to late 20-Feb
due to partial impact from a CME first observed on 17-Feb. The
ACE EPAM CME precursor channel is currently showing only a slight
increasing trend late in the UT day 19-Feb, suggesting a possible
weaker CME arrival. The solar wind speed is expected to be elevated
over 20-21 Feb due to CME effects, combined with high speed wind
stream effects from a small equatorial coronal hole now past
solar central meridian.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 19 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 21113212
Cocos Island 3 11111111
Darwin 5 21112212
Townsville 6 21113222
Learmonth 5 20113212
Alice Springs 5 20113212
Gingin 5 20213112
Canberra 5 20113112
Hobart 5 21113211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Feb :
Macquarie Island 10 11115311
Casey 12 34422112
Mawson 19 52422334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1200 2121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Feb 30 G0-G1, slight chance of an isolated G2 period
21 Feb 18 Initially at G1 then declining to G0
22 Feb 12 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 6 was issued on 17 February
and is current for 18-20 Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 19-Feb. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions are generally expected over the interval 20-21 Feb,
with the slight chance of an isolated G2 period. Anticipated
geomagnetic activity on 19-Feb due to an earlier CME has failed to
eventuate. The anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity over
20-21 Feb is due to a glancing blow from a CME observed on 17-Feb.
A high speed solar wind stream from a small equatorial coronal
hole, may contribute to geomagnetic activity on 21-Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Feb Normal Normal-Fair Fair-poor
21 Feb Normal Fair Poor-fair
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be initially near normal,
becoming fair to poor HF conditions for middle to high latitudes
from late 20-21 Feb, due to possible increased geomagnetic activity
from a recent CME. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Feb 132
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15-85%.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15%.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20-50%.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-35%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Feb 120 About 15% above predicted monthly values
21 Feb 95 Near predicted monthly values
22 Feb 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 18 was issued on
17 February and is current for 18-20 Feb. ASWFC Preliminary HF
Communications Warning 19 was issued on 17 February and is current
for 19-21 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on 19-Feb were strongly enhanced. Spread F was observed
at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be 15%
enhanced on 20-Feb. The anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity
on 19-Feb did not eventuate, and the subsequent mild depressions
forecast for 20-Feb are now not expected. MUFs are expected to
be near predicted monthly values on 21-22 Feb, with mild depressions
possible due to anticipated geomagnetic activity caused the anticipated
arrival of a CME. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Feb
Speed: 432 km/sec Density: 5.5 p/cc Temp: 104000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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