[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 18 February 23 issued 2331 UT on 18 Feb 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 19 10:31:05 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 FEBRUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 FEBRUARY - 21 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Feb: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Feb: 167/121
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Feb 20 Feb 21 Feb
Activity R0-R1 chance R2-R3 R0-R1 chance R2-R3 R0-R1 chance R2-R3
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 150/105 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 18-Feb was at the R0 level,
with two C7 flares the largest flares of the day, both produced
by AR3226 (N10W29, beta). There are currently six numbered sunspot
regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered region.
AR3225 (S21W73, beta) showed spot development over the UT day
and both AR3226 and AR3229 (N27E46, beta) showed development
of their trailer spots. AR3226 and AR3229 are the largest and
most significant sunspot regions on the solar disk, both have
a history of M-class flaring and AR3229 produced an X2.2 flare
on 17-Feb. There is one unnumbered region at N25W23, which exhibited
spot development over the UT day, but is small and magnetically
simple. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels, with
a chance of R2-R3 flaring over 19-21 Feb. Several CMEs were observed
on 18-Feb, but none are considered geoeffective. A southeast
directed partial halo CME is visible in LASCO C2 imagery from
18/0248UT. GOES SUVI imagery shows coronal loop expansion behind
the east limb from 18/0209UT indicating that this is a far side
event. The solar wind speed on UT day 18-Feb was steady, ranging
from 405 to 490 km/s, and is currently near 420 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT, and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -5 nT. An increase
in the solar wind speed is expected on 19-Feb due to an anticipated
impact from a CME first observed on 15-Feb. This CME was originally
forecast to impact on 18-Feb. A further enhancement in the solar
wind speed is expected late on 19-Feb due to an impact from a
CME first observed on 17-Feb. The solar wind speed is expected
to be elevated over 20-21 Feb due to ongoing CME effects, combined
with high speed wind stream effects from an equatorial coronal
hole currently rotating towards a geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 18 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 11112011
Cocos Island 2 11111010
Darwin 3 11111012
Townsville 3 11112012
Learmonth 4 21112021
Alice Springs 3 11112012
Gingin 4 11113011
Canberra 3 01112021
Hobart 5 11213121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Feb :
Macquarie Island 5 12103211
Casey 16 35432122
Mawson 9 23223131
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1211 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Feb 20 G0-G1, chance of G2
20 Feb 30 G0-G1, chance of G2
21 Feb 15 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 6 was issued on 17 February
and is current for 18-20 Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 18-Feb. G0 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with the exception
of an isolated period of G1 at Casey. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 19-20 Feb, with a chance of G2. G0 geomagnetic
conditions, with a chance of G1 are expected on 21-Feb. The expected
elevated geomagnetic conditions are due to anticipated impacts
from two CMEs one first observed on 15-Feb and another first
observed on 17-Feb, both expected to impact on 19-Feb, combined
with high speed wind stream effects from a small equatorial coronal
hole, expected to be in a geoeffective position by 21-Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
20 Feb Fair Fair Fair-poor
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on 19-Feb. Fair to poor HF conditions are expected on 20-Feb,
particularly at higher latitudes, due to increased geomagnetic
activity from two anticipated CME impacts. Normal conditions
are expected on 21-Feb, with a chance of degradations due to
ongoing increased geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Feb 112
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Feb 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Feb 80 Near predicted monthly values
21 Feb 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 18 was issued on
17 February and is current for 18-20 Feb. ASWFC Preliminary HF
Communications Warning 19 was issued on 17 February and is current
for 19-21 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on 18-Feb were near predicted monthly values during local
day and up to 20% enhanced during local night. Spread F was observed
at Hobart and Canberra. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced on 19-Feb. MUFs are expected to
be near predicted monthly values on 20-21 Feb, with mild depressions
possible due to anticipated geomagnetic activity caused by CME
impacts. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Feb
Speed: 489 km/sec Density: 7.0 p/cc Temp: 251000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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