[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 17 February 23 issued 2330 UT on 17 Feb 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 18 10:30:56 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 FEBRUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 FEBRUARY - 20 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Feb: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X2.3 2017UT probable all East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Feb: 343/327
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb
Activity R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 155/109 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 17-Feb was at the R3 level,
due to an X2.2 flare at 17/2017UT produced by AR3229 (N30E59,
beta). There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions visible
on the solar disk. AR3225 (S21W60, beta) showed development over
the UT-day, whilst AR3226 (N10W16, beta) showed development in
its trailer spots. AR3226 and the newly arrived AR3229 are the
largest sunspot regions on the solar disk, with AR3229 responsible
for the only significant flare of the UT-day. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at R1-R2 levels, with a chance of R3 over 18-20 Feb. A
fast halo CME is visible in STEREO-A imagery from 17/2023UT associated
with the X2.2 flare at 17/2017UT. No LASCO C2 imagery is available
for this CME at time of writing. Modelling based on STEREO-A
imagery suggests an impact with Earth on 19/2200UT ± 12 hours.
Further analysis will be performed when more coronagraph imagery
is available. A narrow NE CME was observed from 17/1325UT in
LASCO C2 and STEREO-A imagery. This CME is not considered to
be geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day 17-Feb declined
slightly, ranging from 452 to 557 km/s, and is currently near
470 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 15 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+13 to -7 nT. Although, all Bt values over 7 nT occurred in the
first 3 hour period of the UT-day. The solar wind speed is expected
to increase on 18-Feb and remain elevated over 19 Feb due to
an anticipated impact from a CME first observed on 15-Feb. A
further increase is expected late on 19-Feb or early on 20-Feb
due to an anticipated impact from a CME first observed on 17-Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 17 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 22211001
Cocos Island 2 22110000
Darwin 4 22121011
Townsville 4 22211012
Learmonth 4 31221001
Alice Springs 3 22211001
Gingin 4 32211100
Canberra 3 22211000
Hobart 4 23211100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Feb :
Macquarie Island 4 23211100
Casey 23 46532112
Mawson 16 44422142
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Feb :
Darwin 7 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 27 3254 5612
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Feb 30 G1, chance of G2
19 Feb 20 G1, chance of G2
20 Feb 40 G1-G2
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 17 February
and is current for 17-19 Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 17-Feb. G0 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with the exception
of Casey, which recorded periods of G2 and G1. G1 geomagnetic
conditions, with a chance of G2 are expected on 18-19 Feb due
to two anticipated CME impacts, one on 18-Feb from a CME first
observed on 15-Feb and one on 19/2200 ± 12 hours from a CME first
observed on 18-Feb. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 20-Feb due to continued effects from the second CME impact.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Feb Fair Fair Fair-poor
19 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
20 Feb Fair Fair-poor Poor
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on 18-Feb. Fair to poor HF conditions are expected on 19-20 Feb,
particularly at higher latitudes, due to increased geomagnetic
activity from two anticipated CME impacts. Shortwave fadeouts
are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Feb 111
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Feb 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Feb 50 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
20 Feb 50 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 18 was issued on
17 February and is current for 18-20 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Southern Australian region on 16-Feb were near
predicted monthly values. MUFs in the Northern Australian region
on 16-Feb were enhanced by up to 15%, with periods of up to 30%
enhancements during local night. Spread F was observed at Hobart.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15%
enhanced on 18-Feb. Depressions of up to 15% are expected over
19-20 Feb due to geomagnetic activity caused by two anticipated
CME impacts, one on 18-Feb from a CME first observed on 15-Feb
and one on 19/2200 ± 12 hours from a CME first observed on 18-Feb.
Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Feb
Speed: 441 km/sec Density: 8.1 p/cc Temp: 162000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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