[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 16 February 23 issued 2331 UT on 16 Feb 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 17 10:31:17 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 FEBRUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 FEBRUARY - 19 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Feb: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0032UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Feb: 163/117
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Feb 18 Feb 19 Feb
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 160/114 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 16-Feb was at the R1 level,
due to a M1.1 flare at 16/0032UT from an active region beyond
the eastern limb. Several C-class flares were also observed throughout
the UT day. There are currently six numbered sunspot regions
visible on the solar disk. AR3226 (N10W02, beta) remains the
largest active region but has shown decay in its trailer spots
and decreased in magnetic complexity over the 24-hour period.
AR3229 (N30E73, beta) recently rotated over the eastern limb
and appears stable. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels
over 17-19 Feb. A high velocity northwest CME was observed, visible
in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A coronagraph imagery from 16/1048UT.
This CME is possibly associated with an on disk source visible
in GOES SUVI imagery at ~N30W47 from 16/1022UT. Model runs indicate
this CME does not contain a geoeffective component. No other
Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed
on UT day 16-Feb increased, ranging from 325 to 505 km/s, and
is currently near 490 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 22 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +15 to -20 nT. Several periods of southward IMF
conditions were observed throughout the UT day. The solar wind
speed is expected to remain elevated on 17-Feb then increase
on 18-Feb due to an anticipated CME impact from a CME first observed
on 15-Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Feb: G1
Estimated Indices 16 Feb : A K
Australian Region 20 33345422
Cocos Island 16 23335411
Darwin 21 33345423
Townsville 20 33345422
Learmonth 23 33345513
Alice Springs 22 23345523
Gingin 22 33345522
Canberra 19 23345422
Hobart 22 24445422
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Feb :
Macquarie Island 30 24456511
Casey 26 45544323
Mawson 35 34655522
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 16 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 29
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 24 3255 3444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Feb 15 G0, chance G1
18 Feb 28 G1, slight chance G2
19 Feb 18 G0-G1
COMMENT: G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 16-Feb due to ongoing effects of a CME impact
late on 14-Feb. Mostly G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G2 observed
at Macquarie Island and Mawson. There is a chance of G1 geomagnetic
conditions on 17-Feb and a chance of G2 on 18-Feb due to an anticipated
CME impact from a CME first observed on 15-Feb. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 19-Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Feb Fair Fair Fair-poor
19 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on 17-Feb and 19-Feb. Fair to poor HF conditions are expected
on 18-Feb due to increased geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Feb 80
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Feb 80 Near predicted monthly values
18 Feb 60 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
19 Feb 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 17 was issued on
15 February and is current for 15-17 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Southern Australian region on 16-Feb were depressed
by 15%. MUFs in the Northern Australian region on 16-Feb were
up to 15% enhanced, with periods of up to 35% enhancements during
local night. Spread F was observed at Hobart. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 17-19 Feb. MUF depressions
are possible over 17-18 Feb due to anticipated increased geomagnetic
activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Feb
Speed: 332 km/sec Density: 12.4 p/cc Temp: 25600 K Bz: -8 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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