[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 15 February 23 issued 2330 UT on 15 Feb 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 16 10:30:55 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 FEBRUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 FEBRUARY - 18 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Feb: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0447UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.0 0523UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.4 0705UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.1 2114UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Feb: 174/128
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb
Activity R1 R1 R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 172/126 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 15-Feb was at the R1 level,
with several low level M-class flares. All M-class flares over
the UT day were produced by beyond the limb region AR3213 (N28W95,
beta-gamma). There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions
visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3226 (N10E11,
beta-gamma) is the most magnetically complex region and has exhibited
spot development over the 24-hour period. AR3214 (N10W86, beta)
appears stable and will soon rotate over the western limb. An
unnumbered region recently appeared at S08W18 (alpha) and is
stable. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
The background level of X-ray flux has declined over the UT day.
Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level over 16-18 Feb.
A filament eruption was observed, visible in H-alpha imagery
at S10W15 from 15/0112UT. A subsequent partial halo CME was observed
in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from 15/0224UT. Model runs indicate
this CME is Earth-directed, with an impact to Earth's magnetosphere
late on 17-Feb or early 18-Feb. No other Earth-directed CMEs
have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 15-Feb was
near background levels with a declining trend, ranging from 310
to 360 km/s, and is currently near 320 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 13 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +8 to -11 nT. Extended periods of southward IMF
conditions were observed throughout the UT day. The solar wind
speed is expected to remain near background levels over 16-17
Feb then increase on 18-Feb due to an anticipated CME impact
from a CME first observed on 15-Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Feb: G1
Estimated Indices 15 Feb : A K
Australian Region 21 23443533
Cocos Island 16 22333434
Darwin 15 22343423
Townsville 17 23443423
Learmonth 26 33354534
Alice Springs 22 23353533
Gingin 23 32444444
Canberra 21 23443533
Hobart 21 23443533
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Feb :
Macquarie Island 37 23464653
Casey 16 34342224
Mawson 33 44554543
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 16 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2132 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Feb 8 G0
17 Feb 15 G0, chance of G1
18 Feb 26 G1, slight chance G2
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 15 February
and is current for 15-16 Feb. G1 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 15-Feb, due to a
CME impact late on 14-Feb followed by extended periods of southward
IMF conditions. Mostly G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region, with two isolated periods of G2 observed
at Macquarie Island. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on
16-Feb. There is a chance of G1 geomagnetic conditions on 17-Feb
and a chance of G2 on 18-Feb due to an anticipated CME impact
from a CME first observed on 15-Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Feb Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 16-17 Feb. Fair to poor HF conditions are expected on 18-Feb
due to increased geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Feb 152
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 30-55% during local night and after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 45-50% during local night and after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25-70% during local night and after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Feb 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
17 Feb 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 Feb 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 17 was issued on
15 February and is current for 15-17 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Southern Australian region on 15-Feb were enhanced
by 30%. MUFs in the Northern Australian region on 15-Feb were
up to 15% enhanced, with periods of up to 70% enhancements during
local night. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced over 16-18 Feb. Degradations are possible over
17-18 Feb due to increased geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Feb
Speed: 334 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 17200 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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