[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 February 23 issued 2331 UT on 14 Feb 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 15 10:31:24 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 FEBRUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 FEBRUARY - 17 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Feb: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.8 0203UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.7 1212UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Feb: 180/133
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb
Activity R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 178/131 178/131 178/131
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Feb was at the R1 level
with two M-class flares. An M1.8 flare at 14/0203UT, produced
by AR3226 (N10E23, beta) and an M2.6 flare at 14/1212UT, produced
by AR3213 (N31W88, beta). There are 12 numbered sunspot regions
currently on the solar disk. AR3225 (S21W20, beta) and AR3226
showed spot development over the UT-day. AR3213 and AR3214 (N10W73,
beta) are the largest sunspot groups on the solar disk and AR3213
was responsible for the largest flare of the UT-day. However,
they will both rotate off the western limb over 15-16 Feb. AR3226
is the most significant region on the solar disk, as it has a
history of M-class flaring and will remain on the solar disk
for the next week. The remaining sunspot regions were either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R1-R2
levels over 15-17 Feb. No geoeffective CMEs were observed on
14-Feb. An east directed CME was observed in LASCO and STEREO-A
imagery from 14/0348UT. An eruption is visible behind the east
limb at around N22 from 14/0306UT in SDO and GOES SUVI imagery.
This CME is not considered geoeffective. A pair of eruptions
are visible in SDO imagery from 14/1458UT and 14/2013UT at around
N32W00. A filament liftoff is visible in SDO and H-Alpha imagery
from 14/0959UT at around S50W10. The material does not appear
to have completely left the solar surface. No associated CMEs
are visible for any of these events in available coronagraph
imagery. A lack of solar wind data from ACE and DSCOVR for the
majority of the day makes it difficult to fully describe the
solar wind conditions for 14-Feb. The solar wind speed decreased
in the later part of the day before experiencing a sudden increase
at 14/2202UT likely due to a glancing impact from a CME first
observed on 10-Feb. The solar wind ranged from 371 to 315 km/s,
and is currently near 355 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +3 to -6 nT. A very minor shock in the IMF was
detected with Bt jumping from 4 to 8 nT at 14/2203UT likely due
to a glancing impact from a CME first observed on 10-Feb. The
solar wind speed is continue to increase due to the recent CME
impact, before declining to background levels over 15-17 Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 14 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 21221112
Cocos Island 3 20211111
Darwin 5 30221112
Townsville 6 31231111
Learmonth 7 31221213
Alice Springs 5 21221112
Gingin 5 21221212
Canberra 5 21230112
Hobart 7 21241112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Feb :
Macquarie Island 8 10252100
Casey 13 34432212
Mawson 14 22332135
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1010 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Feb 16 G0, chance of G1
16 Feb 8 G0
17 Feb 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 14-Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G1 observed
at Macquarie Island and Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 15-17 Feb, with a chance of G1 on 15-Feb due to
a possible glancing impact from a CME first observed on 10-Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF propagation conditions are possible
from late 15-Feb to 16-Feb, due to possible geomagnetic activity
caused by the recent glancing impact of a CME first observed
on 10-Feb. Normal HF propagation conditions are expected on 17-Feb.
Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Feb 145
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Enhanced by 75% during local night.
Enhanced by 55% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Feb 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
17 Feb 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 16 was issued on
13 February and is current for 13-15 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Southern Australian region on 14-Feb were near
predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. MUFs in the Northern
Australian region on 14-Feb were up to 20% enhanced, with periods
of up to 65% enhancements during local night. Due to a recent
glancing impact from a CME first observed on 10-Feb, mild depressions
are possible in the Australian region during local night hours
on 15-Feb and during the UT-day 16-Feb, with higher latitudes
more affected. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values to 15% enhanced on 17-Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Feb
Speed: 367 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 18000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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