[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 February 23 issued 2330 UT on 13 Feb 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 14 10:30:54 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 FEBRUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 FEBRUARY - 16 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Feb: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0519UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.4 1556UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Feb: 189/142
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 190/143 185/138 185/138
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-Feb was at the R1 level
with two M-class flares. An M1.0 flare at 13/0518UT and an M1.4
flare at 13/1556UT, both produced by AR3226 (N10E38, beta). There
are 13 numbered sunspot regions currently on the solar disk,
and one unnumbered region. AR3226 and AR3227 (S03E46, beta) both
showed spot development over the 24-hour period, whilst AR3225
(S21W05, beta) showed trailer spot development. AR3214 (N10W58,
beta) and AR3213 (N31W74, beta) are the largest sunspot groups
on the solar disk, however they will both rotate off the western
limb over 14-15 Feb and are stable. The remaining sunspot regions
were either stable or in decay. One unnumbered sunspot region
is present at S22E18 and has alpha magnetic complexity. Several
CMEs were observed, but none are considered geoeffective. Many
filaments are present on the solar disk, however none are particularly
large. Solar activity is expected to be at the R1-R2 levels over
14-16 Feb. The solar wind speed decreased for most of the UT
day 13-Feb, with a sharp rise occurring at 13/1944UT. The wind
speed ranged from 337 to 460 km/s, and is currently near 380
km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 5 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +3
to -3 nT. A rise in solar wind speed is expected on 14-Feb due
to a glancing impact from a CME first observed on 10-Feb. The
speed is expected to decline over 15-16 Feb as CME effects subside.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Feb: G)
Estimated Indices 13 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 20113112
Cocos Island 3 11111111
Darwin 5 20113112
Townsville 6 21123122
Learmonth 6 20123122
Alice Springs 4 10013112
Gingin 4 20013111
Canberra 3 10113011
Hobart 4 11113111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Feb :
Macquarie Island 8 10035001
Casey 10 33313221
Mawson 9 22212143
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1121 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Feb 20 G0 - G1
15 Feb 15 G0, chance of G1
16 Feb 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 10 February
and is current for 14 Feb only. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 13-Feb. G0 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated
period of G1 observed at Macquarie Island. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 14-Feb due to a glancing impact from
a coronal mass ejection first observed on 10-Feb. G0 conditions
are expected on 15-16 Feb, with a chance of G1 conditions on
15-Feb due to possible ongoing CME effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF propagation conditions are expected for
14-15 Feb. Due to a glancing impact from a recent CME first observed
on 10-Feb. Normal HF propagation conditions are expected for
16-Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Feb 121
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 65% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Feb 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Feb 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Feb 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 16 was issued on
13 February and is current for 13-15 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region were near predicted monthly values
to 35% enhanced on UT day 13-Feb. Depressions of up to 15% were
observed in the Eastern Australian region local during daylight
hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced for the first half of 14-Feb. Mild depressions
are possible from late 14-Feb to 15-Feb due to a glancing impact
from a CME first observed on 10-Feb. MUFs are expected to be
near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced on 16-Feb. Shortwave
fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Feb
Speed: 473 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 194000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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