[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 February 23 issued 2332 UT on 12 Feb 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 13 10:32:10 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 FEBRUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 FEBRUARY - 15 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Feb: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.2 0848UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.5 0927UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.2 1334UT possible lower European
M1.1 1538UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Feb: 200/152
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Feb 14 Feb 15 Feb
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 200/152 195/147 190/143
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-Feb was at the R1 level
due to M class flare activity. Solar region AR3217(S11E25, beta-gamma)
produced the M3 flare and two M1 flares. Solar region AR3222
on the northwest solar limb produced an M1 flare. Solar regions
of interest AR3217, AR3213(N31W61, gamma) and AR3214(N10W44,
gamma) have been reported to have resumed growth in area and
regained some magnetic complexity. Solar region AR3214 produced
a minor C8.8 flare at 12/0344UT. However, in SDO HMIIF imagery
solar regions AR3213 and AR3217 appear to show a more open spot
configuration toward the end of the UT day 12-Feb. Solar region
AR3214 initially showed redevelopment of intermediate spots which
then exhibited some decay later in the UT day. With three new
small regions emerging and two small regions decaying, and the
departure of AR3222 there are currently 12 numbered regions on
the disk. No new Earth directed CMEs have been observed. A narrow
south west directed CME was observed in LASCO C2 from 12/1724UT
and is presumed far side. Solar activity is expected to be at
the R1-R2 levels over 13-15 Feb. The solar wind speed on UT day
12-Feb ranged from 462 to 500km/s, and is currently near 447
km/s with a slow declining trend. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +3 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to further decrease due to waning coronal hole high speed wind
stream effects. Weak magnetic field structures currently near
the centre of the solar disk may maintain a slightly elevated
wind speed above background levels. There is a chance for a weak
shock arrival during the second half of the UT day on 14-Feb
from a recent partially Earth directed CME associated with a
filament eruption.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 12 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 22111222
Cocos Island 3 12110121
Darwin 5 22111222
Townsville 5 22111222
Learmonth 6 22112222
Alice Springs 5 22111222
Gingin 6 21211232
Canberra 5 12211221
Hobart 6 22212221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Feb :
Macquarie Island 6 22312210
Casey 15 34432133
Mawson 29 34423365
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9 3323 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Feb 5 G0
14 Feb 18 G0, isolated G1 periods possible
15 Feb 12 G0, chance of G1 periods
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 10 February
and is current for 14 Feb only. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 12-Feb. In the Antarctic
region G0 conditions at Macquarie Island and Casey, with G1 and
G2 periods observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected for 13-Feb. G1 periods are expected from mid UT day
on 14-Feb due to a glancing blow from a coronal mass ejection
associated with a solar filament eruption.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Feb Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal
14 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
15 Feb Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for 13-Feb. Degraded HF conditions possible late 14-15 Feb for
middle to high latitudes, due to possible glancing blow from
a recent CME. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Feb 126
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20-40%.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15-35%.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30-55%.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 10-20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Feb 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Feb 100 Near to 15% predicted monthly values, becoming
degraded late in UT day.
15 Feb 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 15 was issued on
10 February and is current for 11-13 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region were near predicted monthly values
to 55% enhanced on UT day 12-Feb. Southeast Australian ionosonde
stations are showing 10-20% depressed MUFs after local dawn this
morning which are not expected to persist. MUFs are generally
expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
Shortwave fadeouts are probable. Degraded HF conditions for the
southern Australian region may be experienced from late 14-15
Feb due to the anticipated arrival of a CME.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Feb
Speed: 489 km/sec Density: 7.5 p/cc Temp: 191000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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