[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 11 February 23 issued 2331 UT on 11 Feb 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 12 10:31:31 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 FEBRUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 FEBRUARY - 14 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Feb: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 10/2241UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M2.3 0808UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.1 1058UT possible lower European
M1.5 1134UT possible lower European
M1.5 1210UT possible lower European
M1.1 1223UT possible lower European
M1.5 1240UT possible lower European
X1.2 1549UT probable all South American/
Atlantic
M1.4 1723UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Feb: 210/161
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Possible
10.7cm/SSN 210/161 205/156 205/156
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 11-Feb was at the R3 level
due to an X1.2 flare from AR3217(S11E37, beta). This flare was
of very short duration flare with no apparent associated coronal
mass ejection. This region also produced two M1 flares. A number
of other regions unexpectedly produced low level M class flare
activity, AR3208(N08W75, beta) produced an M1 and an M2 flare,
AR3220(S15E54, beta) produced one M1 flare and also produced
the M1 late in the UT day yesterday, AR3222(N29W77, beta) produced
two M1 flares. AR3214(N10W32, beta) again was flare quiet. The
larger regions on the disk AR3213, AR3217 have reduced in magnetic
complexity. AR3214 appears relatively stable with some minor
intermediate spot reconfiguration. AR3208 and AR3222 are close
to rotating over the western solar limb, with AR3208 declining
and AR3222 showing development as they depart the solar disk.
With the decay of two minor solar regions there are now 10 numbered
regions on the solar disk. Several CMEs have been observed but
they appear to be either farside or non Earth directed events.
A narrow CME was observed in LASCO C2 from 11/0500UT directed
to the south west but could not be correlated to on disk activity
and a CME was observed directed to the west and slightly to the
north in LASCO imagery from 11/1048UT. This event also could
not be associated with on disk activity. Another CME was observed
directed predominately to the north and slightly to the east
in LASCO C2 from 11/1112UT which appears correlated to minor
flare activity near small solar region AR216(N24E06, alpha) in
SDO imagery. This event is considered non Earth directed as it
is directed mostly out of the ecliptic plane. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R1-R2 levels over 12-14 Feb, with perhaps
a decline in the rate of solar flare production. The solar wind
speed on UT day 11-Feb ranged from 459 to 532 km/s, and is currently
near 485 km/s with a slight declining trend. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +6 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to decrease to background levels over 11-13 Feb due to waning
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. There is a chance
for a weak shock arrival second half of the UT day on 14-Feb
due to a recent partially Earth directed CME associated with
a filament eruption.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 11 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 22132012
Cocos Island 3 22121010
Darwin 6 21132112
Townsville 6 22132112
Learmonth 6 31222012
Alice Springs 6 22132012
Gingin 7 32232012
Canberra 5 22132011
Hobart 7 22233111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Feb :
Macquarie Island 17 33255010
Casey 19 34543222
Mawson 21 45443123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 52 (Unsettled)
Hobart 117 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12 3222 3233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Feb 5 G0
13 Feb 5 G0
14 Feb 20 Initially G0, then G1 periods
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 10 February
and is current for 14 Feb only. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 11-Feb. Isolated
G1 periods were observed in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 12-13 Feb. G1 periods are expected
from mid UT day on 14-Feb due to a coronal mass ejection associated
with a solar filament eruption.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Feb Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal
14 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 12-13 Feb. Degraded HF conditions possible 14-15 Feb due
to possible glancing blow from a recent CME. Shortwave fadeouts
are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Feb 121
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25-40%.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25-40%.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25%.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Feb 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Feb 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Feb 100 Near to 15% predicted monthly values, becoming
degraded late in UT day.
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 15 was issued on
10 February and is current for 11-13 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region were near predicted monthly values
to 40% enhanced. Occasional mild spread F was observed during
local night hours at Hobart and Perth. Southeast Australian ionosonde
stations are showing mildly depressed MUFs after local dawn this
morning which are not expected to persist. MUFs are generally
expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
Shortwave fadeouts are probable. Degraded HF conditions for the
southern Australian region may be experienced 14-15 Feb due to
the anticipated arrival of a CME.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Feb
Speed: 490 km/sec Density: 8.3 p/cc Temp: 211000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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