[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 February 23 issued 2331 UT on 10 Feb 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 11 10:31:23 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 FEBRUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 FEBRUARY - 13 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Feb: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.7 0303UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.4 0805UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.2 1455UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.7 1601UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.3 2241UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Feb: 208/159
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 210/161 210/161 205/156
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-Feb was at the R1 level.
The M class flare activity was produced by AR3213(N33W31, beta-gamma-delta).
The M3.7 flare did not appear to be associated with a coronal
mass ejection. Solar region AR3217(S15E52, beta-gamma-delta)
produced two C9 flares. There are currently twelve numbered sunspot
regions visible on the solar disk with three new regions emerging
in the solar northwest quadrant. Solar region AR3213 is showing
some intermediate spot decay and AR3217 is showing some development
in its leader spots. Relatively large solar region AR3214(N13W17,
beta-gamma) is showing spot development, though has yet to produce
a significant flare. A section of a solar filament centred at
S15W30 erupted from 10/0819UT (GONG H-alpha imagery), an associated
southwest directed mass ejection was observed from 10/0912UT
in LASCO C2. Event modelling shows a relatively slow CME with
a predicted Earth arrival on 14-Feb. Southeast directed CMEs
were observed in LASCO C2 possibly in association with the C9
flares from AR3127. Due to eastward location and slow speed,
these CMEs are not considered significant. An erupting prominence
was observed on the crown of the Sun directly northward, and
is considered to be not Earth directed. Solar activity is expected
to be at the R1-R2 levels over 11-13 Feb. The solar wind speed
on UT day 10-Feb was steady and ranged from 462 to 539 km/s,
and is currently near 540 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +4 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to decrease to background levels over 11-12 Feb due to waning
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 10 Feb : A K
Australian Region 9 22223223
Cocos Island 7 22213222
Darwin 9 22223223
Townsville 9 22223223
Learmonth 11 32233223
Alice Springs 9 22223223
Gingin 10 32223232
Canberra 9 22223223
Hobart 9 22223223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Feb :
Macquarie Island 17 33335232
Casey 23 45533233
Mawson 35 45433456
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 16 2423 3344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Feb 8 G0
12 Feb 5 G0
13 Feb 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 10-Feb. Predominately G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated G2 period
observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over
11-13 Feb. G1 periods are expected on 14-Feb due to a coronal
mass ejection associated with a solar filament eruption.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Feb Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 11-13 Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Feb 100
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15-30%.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20-30%.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Feb 95 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Feb 95 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Feb 95 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 15 was issued on
10 February and is current for 11-13 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region were near predicted monthly values
to 30% enhanced. Spread F was observed during local night hours
at Hobart and Perth. Mildly depressed MUFs observed after local
dawn at Hobart which is not expected to persist. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced. Shortwave
fadeouts are probable. Degraded HF conditions may be experienced
14-15 Feb due to the anticipated arrival of a CME.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Feb
Speed: 512 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 141000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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