[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 09 February 23 issued 2330 UT on 09 Feb 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 10 10:30:55 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 FEBRUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 FEBRUARY - 12 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Feb: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.1 0310UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.1 0717UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M2.8 0907UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.5 1456UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.4 1525UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.8 1842UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Feb: 215/165
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Feb 11 Feb 12 Feb
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 214/165 212/163 212/163
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 9-Feb was at the R1 level,
with six M-class flares produced over the 24-hour period. An
M3.0 flare at 9/0310UT, an M2.8 flare at 9/0907UT and an M1.4
flare at 9/1525UT were produced by AR3217 (S08E59, beta). An
M1.1 flare at 9/0717UT, an M1.5 flare at 9/1456UT and an M1.8
flare at 9/1842UT were produced by AR3213 (N31W25, beta-gamma-delta).
There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk and two unnumbered regions. AR3213 and AR3217
are the largest and most significant regions on the solar disk,
both producing R1 level flaring activity over the 24-hour period.
AR3213 showed trailer spot development over the UT-day, all other
numbered regions were either stable or in decay. Two unnumbered
regions are visible at N18E80 (alpha) and S14E79 (alpha), both
were stable over the UT-day. Solar activity is expected to be
at the R1-R2 levels over 10-12 Feb. Several CMEs were observed
on 9-Feb, but none are considered geoeffective. A large filament,
approximately 50 degrees long, is visible on the solar disk stretching
from S32W34 to the west limb. The solar wind speed on UT day
9-Feb decreased, ranging from 443 to 594 km/s, and is currently
near 480 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 8 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+5 to -8 nT. An period of sustained -Bz began at 9/1703UT and
is ongoing at time of writing. The solar wind speed is expected
to continue to decrease to background levels over 10-12 Feb due
to waning coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 09 Feb : A K
Australian Region 12 24222333
Cocos Island 8 23221132
Darwin 9 23221323
Townsville 12 24222333
Learmonth 12 34222332
Alice Springs 9 23221323
Gingin 11 33221333
Canberra 11 24222323
Hobart 14 34322333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Feb :
Macquarie Island 19 34343433
Casey 25 45542333
Mawson 35 55533363
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Hobart 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15 3334 4323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Feb 10 G0, chance of G1
11 Feb 8 G0
12 Feb 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 9-Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
at Macquarie Island, G1 conditions were observed at Casey and
Mawson, with an isolated period of G2 observed at Mawson. G0
geomagnetic conditions are expected over 10-12 Feb, with a chance
of G1 on 10-Feb due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Feb Normal Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 10-12 Feb. Degraded HF conditions are possible on 10-Feb
due to increased geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are
probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Feb 76
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Feb 80 Near predicted monthly values
11 Feb 85 Near predicted monthly values
12 Feb 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 14 was issued on
7 February and is current for 8-10 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region were near predicted monthly values,
with depressions of up to 15% observed in the Southern Australian
region during local day. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values on 10-Feb, with a chance of depressed conditions
due to possible increased geomagnetic activity. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 11-12 Feb. Sporadic
E is possible during local night, affecting lower frequencies.
Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Feb
Speed: 550 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 250000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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