[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 February 23 issued 2331 UT on 08 Feb 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 9 10:31:07 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 FEBRUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 FEBRUARY - 11 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Feb: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.1 0253UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.6 1603UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.5 2012UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.7 2113UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.7 2136UT possible lower Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Feb: 192/144
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Feb 10 Feb 11 Feb
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 192/144 195/147 195/147
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 8-Feb was at the R1 level,
with five M-class flares produced over the 24-hour period. An
M2.0 flare at 8/0253UT, an M1.6 flare at 8/1603UT, an M1.5 flare
at 8/2012UT, an M1.7 flare at 8/2112UT, and an M1.7 at 8/2138UT.
The majority of M-class flaring was produced by AR3213 (N31W10,
beta-gamma), however the 8/1603UT flare was a combination of
activity from AR3213 and AR3217 (S08E74, beta) and the 8/2012UT
flare was produced by AR3217. There are currently ten numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3213, AR3214 (N10E08,
beta) and newly arrived region AR3217 are the largest regions
on the disk. Of these, AR3213 and AR3214 and have both exhibited
significant spot development over the 24-hour period and AR3213
and AR3217 have displayed M-class flaring activity. AR3207 (S13W42,
beta), AR3211 (S17W80, beta), AR3215 (N21E34, beta) and AR3218
(N11E64, alpha) also showed spot development over the UT day,
however these are small and noncomplex regions and AR3211 will
rotate off the solar disk on 9-Feb. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at the R1-R2 levels over 9-11 Feb. No geoeffective CMEs were
observed over 8-Feb. A large filament, approximately 50 degrees
long, is visible on the solar disk stretching from S30W22 to
S07W63. The solar wind speed on UT day 8-Feb increased, ranging
from 493 to 635 km/s, and is currently near 540 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT, and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +8 to -8 nT. The
solar wind speed is expected to begin to decrease over 9-10 Feb
due to waning coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 08 Feb : A K
Australian Region 13 33233233
Cocos Island 9 22232232
Darwin 12 23333223
Townsville 14 33243233
Learmonth 13 33233233
Alice Springs 12 23233233
Gingin 14 33233342
Canberra 16 33344223
Hobart 16 33344223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Feb :
Macquarie Island 25 34455323
Casey 51 46754354
Mawson 37 46434364
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Hobart 51 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15 4324 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Feb 12 G0, chance of G1
10 Feb 10 G0
11 Feb 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 8-Feb. G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
at Macquarie Island, G2 conditions were observed at Casey and
Mawson, with an isolated period of G3 observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 9-11 Feb, with a chance of G1 on
9-Feb due to the combination of a possible glancing blow from
a CME first observed on 4-Feb and ongoing coronal hole high speed
wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 9-11 Feb. Degraded HF conditions are possible on 9-Feb due
to increased geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Feb 91
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Feb 95 Near predicted monthly values
10 Feb 95 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Feb 95 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 14 was issued on
7 February and is current for 8-10 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Southern Australian region on UT day 8-Feb were
at near predicted monthly values. MUFs in the Northern Australian
region were enhanced by up to 20%. Sporadic E was observed at
Hobart and Canberra during local night. MUFs are expected to
be near predicted monthly values on 9-Feb, with a chance of depressed
conditions on due to possible increased geomagnetic activity.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15%
enhanced over 10-11 Feb. Sporadic E is possible during local
night, affecting lower frequencies. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Feb
Speed: 511 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 221000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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