[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 February 23 issued 2330 UT on 07 Feb 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 8 10:30:58 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 FEBRUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 FEBRUARY - 10 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Feb: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 1354UT possible lower European
M1.6 2007UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M3.9 2258UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M6.4 2307UT probable lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Feb: 185/138
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Feb 09 Feb 10 Feb
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 185/138 190/143
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 07-Feb was at the R2 level,
due to a M6.4 flare at 07/2307UT from AR3213 (N31E01, beta). Several
other low level M-class flares were also observed from AR3213
and an active region beyond the eastern limb. There are currently
eight numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3213
and AR3214 (N10E21, beta) are the two largest regions on the
disk and have both exhibited spot development over the 24-hour
period. AR3211 (S17W67, beta) has shown minor growth in its trailer
spots. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
The background level of X-ray flux has increased to C-class levels.
Solar activity is expected to be at the R1-R2 levels over 08-10
Feb. Several CMEs were observed, but none are considered geoeffective.
The solar wind speed on UT day 07-Feb was elevated and mostly
stable, ranging from 470 to 600 km/s, and is currently near 480
km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 11 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +8
to -11 nT. Several short periods of southward IMF conditions
were observed throughout the UT day. The solar wind speed is
expected to remain elevated over 08-10 Feb due to ongoing coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 07 Feb : A K
Australian Region 15 34333323
Cocos Island 10 33232311
Darwin 12 33232323
Townsville 14 33333323
Learmonth 14 34332323
Alice Springs 13 33332323
Gingin 18 44333333
Canberra 15 34333323
Hobart 18 34343333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Feb :
Macquarie Island 22 34354432
Casey 33 55644323
Mawson 40 56553444
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16 3334 3234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Feb 10 G0, chance G1
09 Feb 8 G0
10 Feb 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 07-Feb. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G2 observed
at Casey and Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over
08-10 Feb, with a chance of G1 on 08-Feb due to the combined
effects of possible glancing impacts from three CMEs first observed
on 03-Feb and 04-Feb and high speed wind stream effects from
a group of small equatorial coronal holes currently in a geoeffective
position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Feb Normal Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 08-10 Feb. Degraded HF conditions are possible on 08-Feb
due to possible increased geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Feb 85
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Feb 95 Near predicted monthly values
09 Feb 95 Near predicted monthly values
10 Feb 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 13 was issued on 7 February
and is current for 7-8 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
in the Australian region on UT day 07-Feb were depressed by 20%
in southern Australia and near predicted monthly values to 30%
enhanced in northern Australia. Depressions in southern Australia
may be due to a recent mild increase in geomagnetic activity.
Sporadic E was observed throughout the Australian region. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 08-10 Feb.
There is a chance of degraded HF conditions on 08-Feb due to
possible increased geomagnetic activity. Sporadic E is possible
during local night, affecting lower frequencies. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Feb
Speed: 423 km/sec Density: 10.4 p/cc Temp: 170000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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