[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 February 23 issued 2331 UT on 06 Feb 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 7 10:31:02 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 FEBRUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 FEBRUARY - 09 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Feb: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Feb: 158/112
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Feb 08 Feb 09 Feb
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 158/112 158/112
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 06-Feb was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. The largest flare was a C7.8 at
06/1212UT from AR3211 (S17W54, beta). There are currently nine
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3214 (N12E35,
beta) recently appeared on the solar disk and has shown rapid
growth over the UT day. AR3215 (N23E63, beta), AR3213 (N31E14,
beta) and AR3212 (S18W68, beta) have all exhibited spot development
over the 24-hour period. AR3216 (N24E72, alpha) recently rotated
onto the solar disk and appears stable. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at the R0 level over 07-09 Feb, with a chance of R1. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 06-Feb
was elevated with an increasing trend, ranging from 375 to 520
km/s, and is currently near 515 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 13 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +8 to -11 nT. Several periods of southward IMF
conditions were observed throughout the UT day. The solar wind
speed is expected to remain elevated over 07-09 Feb due to ongoing
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 06 Feb : A K
Australian Region 12 33232233
Cocos Island 8 23221123
Darwin 12 33232224
Townsville 12 33232233
Learmonth 16 43233234
Alice Springs 12 33232233
Gingin 16 43323234
Canberra 13 34332223
Hobart 15 34333233
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Feb :
Macquarie Island 16 23344332
Casey 43 46744333
Mawson 46 56544365
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1201 0121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Feb 12 G0, chance of G1
08 Feb 10 G0, chance of G1
09 Feb 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 5 February
and is current for 6-7 Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 06-Feb. G0-G2 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated
period of G3 observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 07-09 Feb, with a chance of G1 over 07-08 Feb due
to the combined effects of possible glancing impacts from three
CMEs first observed on 03-Feb and 04-Feb and high speed wind
stream effects from a group of small equatorial coronal holes
currently in a geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 07-09 Feb. Degraded HF conditions are possible over 07-08
Feb due to possible increased geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Feb 118
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 06-Feb were near predicted monthly values to
25% enhanced. Sporadic E was observed throughout the Australian
region. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced over 07-09 Feb. There is a chance of degraded
HF conditions over 07-08 Feb due to possible increased geomagnetic
activity. Sporadic E is possible during local night, affecting
lower frequencies.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Feb
Speed: 354 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 62100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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