[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 February 23 issued 2330 UT on 05 Feb 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 6 10:30:55 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 FEBRUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 FEBRUARY - 08 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Feb: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Feb: 144/98
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Feb 07 Feb 08 Feb
Activity R0,chance of R1 R0,chance of R1 R0,chance of R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 160/114 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 5-Feb was at the R0 level.
A C6.6 flare occurred at 5/0316UT from over the eastern limb
and a C6.4 at 5/1037UT from AR3211(beta,S17W41). There are currently
five numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3207(beta,S13W03)
and AR3210(beta,S15W29) have decayed. AR3209(beta, N19E29) and
AR3211 have exhibited spot development. AR3212(beta,S18W55) has
developed through the UT day. There are two unnumbered regions,
one at S13W17 and a new region which has rotated onto the solar
disk at N20, both have alpha magnetic characteristics. Solar
activity is expected to be at the R0 level, with a chance of
R1 over 6-8 Feb. Multiple CME's were observed over the UT-day
however none are considered to be geoeffective. The solar wind
speed on UT day 5-Feb was low. The wind speed ranged from 328
to 397 km/s, and is currently near 370 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +8 to -9 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to increase over 6-8 Feb due to the combined effects of possible
glancing impacts from three CMEs first observed on 3-Feb and
4-Feb and high speed wind stream effects from a group of small
equatorial coronal holes currently in a geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 05 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 11101112
Cocos Island 2 11100111
Darwin 3 11101112
Townsville 3 11001122
Learmonth 3 11011122
Alice Springs 3 11101112
Gingin 4 12012022
Canberra 2 01001112
Hobart 3 01112111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Feb :
Macquarie Island 5 41002010
Casey 14 34431223
Mawson 7 23212222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2210 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Feb 15 G0, chance of G1
07 Feb 10 G0, chance of G1
08 Feb 10 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 5 February
and is current for 6-7 Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian and the Antarctic region on UT day 5-Feb. G0
with a chance of G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 6-8
Feb due to the combined effects of possible glancing impacts
from three CMEs first observed on 3-Feb and 4-Feb and high speed
wind stream effects from a group of small equatorial coronal
holes currently in a geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 6-8
Feb, however disturbed conditions are possible due to geomagnetic
activity due to a group of equatorial coronal holes currently
in a geoeffective position and possible glancing impacts from
CMEs first observed on 3-Feb and 4-Feb.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Feb 120
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Feb 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Feb 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Feb 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 5-Feb were 15-30% enhanced. Sporadic E was observed
throughout the Australian region. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 6-8 Feb, with a
chance of depressions over 6-8 Feb due to possible geomagnetic
activity caused by a group of equatorial coronal holes currently
in a geoeffective position and possible glancing impacts from
CMEs first observed on 3-Feb and 4-Feb. Sporadic E is possible
during local night, affecting lower frequencies.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Feb
Speed: 328 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 23800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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