[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 04 February 23 issued 2331 UT on 04 Feb 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 5 10:31:04 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 FEBRUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 FEBRUARY - 07 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Feb: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Feb: 139/93
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Feb 06 Feb 07 Feb
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 145/99 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 4-Feb was at the R0 level,
with several low level C-class flares, with a long duration C2.2
flare at 4/0055UT the most significant of the day. There are
currently five numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar
disk. All sunspot regions showed development of their trailer
spots. AR3211 (S17W28, gamma) showed the most significant development
over the UT day and is the most magnetically complex area on
the solar disk. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level
over 5-7 Feb. A filament eruption is visible on the solar disk
in SDO, H-Alpha and GOES-SUVI imagery from 4/0029UT at around
S15E50 and is associated with the long duration C2.2 flare at
4/0055UT. An associated very slow, south east directed CME is
visible in LASCO and STEREO-A imagery from 4/0125UT. Modelling
suggests a possible glancing impact with Earth at 8/1700UT ±
12 hours, although this is low confidence. A slow filament lift
off is visible on the solar disk at around N40W30 from 3/2301UT
in GOES SUVI imagery. An associated very slow, north west directed
CME is visible in LASCO and STEREO-A imagery from 4/0248UT. Modelling
suggests a possible glancing impact with Earth at 6/1700UT ±
12 hours. Several other CMEs were observed, but none are considered
to be geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day 4-Feb was
low. The wind speed ranged from 292 to 371 km/s, and is currently
near 360 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 8 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+6 to -7 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain low over
5-Feb. An increase is expected over 6-7 Feb due to the combined
effects of possible glancing impacts from CMEs first observed
on 3-Feb and 4-Feb and high speed wind stream effects from a
group of small equatorial coronal holes currently rotating towards
a geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 04 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 22101002
Cocos Island 2 22110000
Darwin 2 21100012
Townsville 4 22101112
Learmonth 3 22100002
Alice Springs 3 22100002
Gingin 2 22101001
Canberra 2 21101002
Hobart 3 21111002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Feb :
Macquarie Island 18 11102056
Casey 10 34322112
Mawson 13 54222211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 1100 1332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Feb 5 G0
06 Feb 15 G0, chance of G1
07 Feb 10 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 4-Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
at Casey, G0 conditions with an isolated period of G1 were observed
at Mawson, and periods of G1 and G2 geomagnetic conditions were
observed at Macquarie Island. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 5-Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions with a chance of G1 are
expected on 6-7 Feb due to the combined effects of possible glancing
impacts from CMEs first observed on 3-Feb and 4-Feb and high
speed wind stream effects from a group of small equatorial coronal
holes currently rotating towards a geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 5-7
Feb. Disturbed conditions are possible on 6-7 Feb due to possible
geomagnetic activity due to a group of equatorial coronal holes
currently rotating towards a geoeffective position and possible
glancing impacts from CMEs first observed on 3-Feb and 4-Feb.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Feb 132
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 75% during local night.
Enhanced by 50% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Feb 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Feb 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Feb 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 4-Feb were 20-30% enhanced. Sporadic E was observed
throughout the Australian region. Spread F was observed at Hobart
during local night. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values to 15% enhanced over 5-7 Feb, with a chance of depressions
over 6-7 Feb due to possible geomagnetic activity caused by a
group of equatorial coronal holes currently rotating towards
a geoeffective position and possible glancing impacts from CMEs
first observed on 3-Feb and 4-Feb. Sporadic E is possible during
local night, affecting lower frequencies.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Feb
Speed: 345 km/sec Density: 7.1 p/cc Temp: 25500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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