[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 February 23 issued 2330 UT on 03 Feb 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 4 10:30:55 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 FEBRUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 FEBRUARY - 06 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Feb: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Feb: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Feb 05 Feb 06 Feb
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 3-Feb was at the R0 level,
with three low level C-class flares. There are currently five
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. Newly emerged
regions AR3209 (N19E57, beta) and AR3210 (S15W02, beta) both
showed spot development over the UT day. AR3207 (S13E23, beta)
was responsible for the majority of the day's C-class flares
and exhibited rearrangement of its trailer spots. All other numbered
sunspot regions are in decay. Two unnumbered regions are visible
at N23W20 and S14W23, both showed spot development over 3-Feb.
Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 4-6 Feb.
An eruption is visible in GOES SUVI and H-Alpha imagery from
3/0837UT at around N25W20. This eruption is possibly the cause
of a pair of west directed CMEs visible in LASCO and STEREO-A
imagery from 3/1023UT and 3/1336UT. Modelling suggests the chance
of a glancing impact from the first CME on 6/0400UT ± 12 hours.
A large and fast CME is visible in LASCO and STEREO-A imagery
from 3/0125UT. This is considered a far side event, however it
may be indicative of enhanced solar activity as the region that
produced it rotates on to the visible solar disk. The solar wind
speed on UT day 3-Feb was low, ranging from 316 to 377 km/s,
and is currently near 340 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +8 to -8 nT. A sustained period of negative Bz
occurred from 3/1331UT to 3/1755UT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain low over 4-5 Feb. An increase is expected on 6-Feb
due to the combined effects of a possible glancing blow from
a CME first observed on 3-Feb and high speed wind stream effects
from a group of small equatorial coronal holes currently rotating
towards a geoeffective position.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 03 Feb : A K
Australian Region 9 21112432
Cocos Island 7 21111421
Darwin 8 21112422
Townsville 9 21112432
Learmonth 14 31122533
Alice Springs 9 21112432
Gingin 10 31111433
Canberra 9 21112432
Hobart 9 21112432
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Feb :
Macquarie Island 20 62002532
Casey 17 34433332
Mawson 17 33213542
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 2101 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Feb 8 G0
05 Feb 5 G0
06 Feb 15 G0
COMMENT: Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the
Australian region on UT day 3-Feb, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Learmonth. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
at Casey, G0 conditions with an isolated period of G1 were observed
at Mawson, and G0 conditions with isolated periods of G1 and
G2 were observed at Macquarie Island. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 4-5 Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions with a chance
of G1 are expected on 6-Feb due to the combined effects of a
possible glancing blow from a CME first observed on 3-Feb and
high speed wind stream effects from a group of small equatorial
coronal holes currently rotating towards a geoeffective position.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 4-6
Feb. Disturbed conditions are possible on 6-Feb due to possible
geomagnetic activity due to a group of equatorial coronal holes
currently rotating towards a geoeffective position and a possible
glancing impact from a CME first observed on 3-Feb.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Feb 127
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Feb 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Feb 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Feb 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Northern Australian
region on UT day 3-Feb were 25-40% enhanced, MUFs in the Southern
Australian region were near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
Sporadic E was observed at several Australian sites during local
night. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced over 4-6 Feb, with a chance of depressions over
6-Feb due to possible geomagnetic activity caused by a group
of equatorial coronal holes currently rotating towards a geoeffective
position and a possible glancing impact from a CME first observed
on 3-Feb. Sporadic E is possible during local night, affecting
lower frequencies.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Feb
Speed: 420 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 142000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list