[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 February 23 issued 2330 UT on 02 Feb 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 3 10:30:58 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 FEBRUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 FEBRUARY - 05 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Feb: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Feb: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Feb 04 Feb 05 Feb
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 02-Feb was at the R0 level,
with two low level C-class flares. There are currently four numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3207 (S13E36, beta)
is the largest region and has exhibited minor growth in its trailer
spots. The leading spot of AR3208 (N16E41, beta) has decayed
whilst its trailer spot has shown minor growth. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. The background level of
X-ray flux remains at B-class levels. Solar activity is expected
to be at the R0 level over 03-05 Feb. A filament eruption was
observed, visible in H-Alpha imagery from 02/0846UT at N30W60.
A subsequent CME is visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from
02/0924UT. Modelling indicates this CME does not have an Earth-directed
component. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The
solar wind speed on UT day 02-Feb was mostly stable, ranging
from 415 to 450 km/s, and is currently near 415 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT, and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -4 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to decrease over 03-05 Feb due to waning
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 02 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 22110011
Cocos Island 2 22110010
Darwin 2 21100012
Townsville 3 22110012
Learmonth 4 32100002
Alice Springs 2 21100011
Gingin 3 31100011
Canberra 3 22110011
Hobart 3 21210011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Feb :
Macquarie Island 6 24120012
Casey 13 44422112
Mawson 19 44312145
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 1101 1232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Feb 5 G0
04 Feb 5 G0
05 Feb 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 02-Feb. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 03-05 Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 03-05
Feb.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Feb 119
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night and after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 02-Feb were near predicted monthly values to
20% enhanced. Sporadic E was observed at several Australian sites.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15%
enhanced over 03-05 Feb. Sporadic E is possible during local
night, affecting lower frequencies.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Feb
Speed: 379 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 23900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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