[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 February 23 issued 2330 UT on 01 Feb 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 2 10:30:55 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 FEBRUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 FEBRUARY - 04 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Feb: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Feb: 134/88
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Feb 03 Feb 04 Feb
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 01-Feb was at the R0 level,
with mostly low level C-class flares. The largest flare was a
C5.7 at 01/2248UT from an active region beyond the western limb.
There are currently three numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3207 (S11E51, beta)
has exhibited growth in its trailer spots over the 24-hour period.
A new unnumbered region recently appeared at N27E68 (beta) and
has shown minor growth. All other sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0
level over 02-04 Feb. A northwest CME was observed, visible in
LASCO C3 coronagraph imagery from 01/0754UT. This CME is associated
with a prominence eruption visible in GOES-SUVI imagery from
01/0601UT. The bulk of this material is from the farside and
thus this CME is not considered geoeffective. No other Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 01-Feb
was initially elevated with a declining trend, until a weak shock
was detected at 01/1540UT. Since this time, the solar wind has
been increasing. The solar wind ranged from 345 to 485 km/s,
and is currently near 430 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +6 to -10 nT. A period of sustained southward
IMF conditions began at 01/2153UT and is ongoing. The solar wind
speed is expected to decrease over 02-04 Feb due to waning coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 01 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 10101232
Cocos Island 4 01100232
Darwin 5 20100233
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 7 11101333
Alice Springs 4 10000232
Gingin 4 10001232
Canberra 4 00011232
Hobart 5 11111132
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Feb :
Macquarie Island 2 01021021
Casey 8 23212132
Mawson 14 34211225
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 1222 1332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Feb 12 G0
03 Feb 5 G0
04 Feb 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 01-Feb. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 02-04 Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 02-04 Feb.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Feb 112
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
03 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 01-Feb were near predicted monthly values to
20% enhanced. Sporadic E was observed at several Australian sites.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15%
enhanced over 02-04 Feb. Sporadic E is possible during local
night, affecting lower frequencies.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jan
Speed: 480 km/sec Density: 7.9 p/cc Temp: 194000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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