[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 31 January 23 issued 2331 UT on 31 Jan 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 1 10:31:11 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 JANUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 FEBRUARY - 03 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jan: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Feb 02 Feb 03 Feb
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 31-Jan was at the R0 level,
with low level C-class flaring only. There are currently five
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3204 (N25W70,
beta) and AR3205 (S24W73, alpha) displayed spot development over
the UT day, however both will rotate off the solar disk within
the coming two days. AR3207 (S13E63, beta) is the most noteworthy
sunspot region as it was responsible for the largest C-class
flares over the 24 hour period and has newly arrived on the solar
disk. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 1-3 Feb.
Several CMEs were observed over the UT-day, but none are considered
to be geoeffective. A filament eruption is visible in H-Alpha
imagery from 31/2023UT at around S12E40. A, likely associated,
south directed CME is visible in STEREO-A imagery from 31/2053UT,
there are currently no LASCO images of this CME, further analysis
will be performed when more imagery is available. The solar wind
speed on UT day 31-Jan remained steady ranging from 415 to 530
km/s and is currently near 450 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -6 nT. A sustained period of negative Bz
occurred from 31/1440UT to 31/1716UT. The solar wind speed is
expected to remain steady over 1-Feb, before decreasing over
2-3 Feb due to waning high speed wind stream effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 31 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 12211321
Cocos Island 8 -4211320
Darwin 6 12211312
Townsville 5 122-----
Learmonth 7 22212321
Alice Springs 5 12211311
Gingin 6 22211320
Canberra 7 12311322
Hobart 8 12311332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Jan :
Macquarie Island 10 02222521
Casey 17 34532322
Mawson 28 23432645
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 18 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1001 0122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Feb 8 G0
02 Feb 5 G0
03 Feb 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 31-Jan. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Macquarie Island and Casey and an isolated period
of G2 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 1-3 Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 1-3 Feb.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Jan 112
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 84
Jan 71
Feb 72
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Feb 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
02 Feb 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
03 Feb 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 31-Jan were near predicted monthly values to
25% enhanced. Significant sporadic E was observed at Brisbane,
Canberra, Hobart and Perth. Small amounts of sporadic E was observed
across the Australian region during local night. Spread F was
observed at Brisbane and Townsville. MUFs are expected to be
near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 1-3 Feb. Sporadic
E is possible during local night, affecting lower frequencies.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: NA
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jan
Speed: 411 km/sec Density: 7.9 p/cc Temp: 75400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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