[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 29 December 23 issued 2330 UT on 29 Dec 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 30 10:31:00 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 DECEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 DECEMBER - 01 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Dec: 143/97
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Dec 31 Dec 01 Jan
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 142/96 140/94 136/90
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 29-Dec was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares observed. The largest flare was a
C9.8 at 29/0754UT produced by AR3533 (N15W49, beta). There are
currently five numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar
disk. AR3531 (S19W47, beta) is the largest region on the solar
disk and has shown decay over the UT day. AR3530 (N08W72, beta)
has shown some possible growth in its leader spot, although this
is unclear due to its increasing proximity to the western limb.
AR3534 (S12E36, beta) has exhibited spot growth in its intermediate
spots. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 30-Dec
to 01-Jan, with a chance of R1. No Earth-directed CMEs have been
observed. A partial halo CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2
coronagraph imagery from 28/2224UT. This CME has no clear source
on disk and is therefore considered a farside event. A fast southeast
directed CME was observed from 29/0224UT. This CME is also considered
a farside event and not geoeffective. The solar wind speed on
UT day 29-Dec generally declined, ranging from 335 to 425 km/s
and is currently near 365 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the north south IMF component
(Bz) range was +8 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to increase over 30-Dec to 01-Jan due to an equatorial coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 29 Dec : A K
Australian Region 10 22333222
Cocos Island 7 22222222
Darwin 8 22223222
Townsville 11 22333232
Learmonth 11 22333232
Alice Springs 9 22323222
Gingin 9 22232223
Canberra 7 12332112
Hobart 8 13332112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Dec :
Macquarie Island 6 11241012
Casey 25 36533223
Mawson 12 33321134
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0010 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Dec 5 G0
31 Dec 10 G0
01 Jan 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 29-Dec. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 30-Dec to 01-Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 29-Dec were
mostly normal. Mostly normal conditions are expected over 30-Dec
to 01-Jan. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Dec 147
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day and night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30-35% during local day and night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 114
Dec 100
Jan 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Dec 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
31 Dec 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 Jan 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 29-Dec in
the Australian region were enhanced by 15-35%. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 30-Dec
to 01-Jan. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Dec
Speed: 438 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 208000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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