[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 28 December 23 issued 2330 UT on 28 Dec 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 29 10:30:57 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 DECEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 DECEMBER - 31 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Dec: 147/101
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Dec 30 Dec 31 Dec
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 28-Dec was at the R0 level
with few low level C-class flares. There are currently six numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered
region. AR3530 (N08W57, beta), AR3533 (N15W34, beta) and AR3534
(S12E51, beta) all displayed spot development but are not currently
magnetically complex. An unnumbered region is visible at around
N02W16 with beta magnetic complexity. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at the R0 level over 29-31 Dec, with a chance of R1. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. A narrow east directed CME is visible
from 28/0948UT in SOHO imagery. There is no clear on disk activity
associated with this event and it is not considered geoeffective.
A northeast directed, slow CME is visible in SOHO imagery from
28/1512UT. A slow filament lift off is visible off the north
limb from 28/0627UT in SDO and GOES SUVI imagery. This CME is
not considered geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day 28-Dec
declined slightly, ranging from 475 to 334 km/s and is currently
near 430 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 6 nT and the north south IMF component (Bz) range was
+4 to -3 nT. Recent forecast CME impacts have not yet eventuated.
There is a chance that late impacts may increase the solar wind
speed on 29-Dec. If this does not occur, the solar wind speed
is expected to remain near background levels over 29-30 Dec.
An equatorial coronal hole, currently rotating towards a geoeffective
position, may cause an increase in solar wind speed on 31-Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 28 Dec : A K
Australian Region 0 00001001
Cocos Island 0 10100000
Darwin 0 00000001
Townsville 1 00001111
Learmonth 1 10011101
Alice Springs 0 00001000
Gingin 0 10000000
Canberra 0 00100000
Hobart 1 01101101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 7 23322111
Mawson 3 12211110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1111 0100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Dec 8 G0, slight chance of G1
30 Dec 5 G0
31 Dec 10 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 28-Dec. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 29-Dec, with a slight chance of G1 due to possible
late impacts from CMEs first observed on 24-Dec. G0 conditions
are expected on 30-Dec. G0 conditions, with a chance of G1 is
expected on 31-Dec due to high speed wind stream effects from
an equatorial coronal hole currently approaching a geoeffective
position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 28-Dec were
mostly normal in the southern hemisphere and were normal to fair
in the northern hemisphere, with most degradations occurring
at high and low latitudes. Mostly normal conditions are expected
over 29-31 Dec. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Dec 140
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 114
Dec 100
Jan 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Dec 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Dec 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
31 Dec 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 28-Dec in
the Australian region were near predicted monthly values, with
enhancements of up to 15% observed in the southern Australian
region and enhancements of up to 25% observed in the northern
Australian region, both during local night. Sporadic E was observed
at Perth during local day and at Learmonth during local night.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15%
enhanced on 29-31 Dec. Sporadic E is likely in the western Australian
region. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Dec
Speed: 459 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 208000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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