[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 30 December 23 issued 2330 UT on 30 Dec 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 31 10:30:58 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 DECEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 DECEMBER - 02 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Dec: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Dec 01 Jan 02 Jan
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 30-Dec was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares observed. There are currently three
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered
region. AR3534 (S12E26, beta) has exhibited spot development
over the UT day, particularly in its intermediate spots. An unnumbered
region is visible near N22W39 (beta) and has shown recent decay.
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 31-Dec to 02-Jan.
A filament eruption was observed, visible in H-alpha imagery
near S40W60 at 30/0807UT. A subsequent CME was observed in LASCO
C2 coronagraph imagery at 30/0936UT. Modelling indicates the
majority of this CME will pass underneath the Earth. A minor
glancing impact to Earth is possible on 02-Jan but any effects
are not expected to be significant. A second filament eruption
was observed in SDO imagery near N60W50 at 30/1729UT. A subsequent
CME is visible from 30/1912UT and is not considered geoeffective.
No other Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind
speed on UT day 30-Dec declined, ranging from 310 to 400 km/s
and is currently near 340 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north south IMF component
(Bz) range was +8 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to increase over 31-Dec to 02-Jan due to coronal hole high speed
wind stream effects from an equatorial coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 30 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 23222111
Cocos Island 5 23221110
Darwin 6 23221112
Townsville 6 23221121
Learmonth 6 23222111
Alice Springs 6 23221111
Gingin 5 22222111
Canberra 5 13212111
Hobart 5 23212110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 12101000
Casey 22 35632211
Mawson 9 24222221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1112 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Dec 10 G0
01 Jan 10 G0
02 Jan 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 30-Dec. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 31-Dec to 02-Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 30-Dec were
mostly normal. Mostly normal conditions are expected over 31-Dec
to 02-Jan.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Dec 128
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 114
Dec 100
Jan 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Dec 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 Jan 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
02 Jan 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 30-Dec in
the Australian region were near predicted monthly values to 15-20%
enhanced. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced over 31-Dec to 02-Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Dec
Speed: 382 km/sec Density: 9.6 p/cc Temp: 50400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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