[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 December 23 issued 2330 UT on 13 Dec 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 14 10:30:56 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 DECEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 DECEMBER - 16 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Dec: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-Dec was at the R0 level,
with the largest flare a C9.0 at 13/1512UT from a region just
behind the solar south west limb at solar latitude S19. Solar
region AR3514(N05W37, beta-gamma) is currently the largest region
on the solar disk and has shown considerable growth in the past
24 hours. Nearby smaller AR3517(N14W25, beta) is also growing.
Solar region AR3519(S13E39, beta) though currently small has
shown spot development. Solar region AR3513(N19W38, alpha) has
been stable and produced an isolated low level C class flare.
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 14-16 Dec. Two
faint minor westward CMEs have been observed. The first was observed
in LASCO C2 imagery from 13/0012UT and the second from 13/0324UT.
The first CME is considered associated with localised plasma
motion just to the east of solar region AR3514. The second CME
may be associated with some plasma motion to the south west of
AR3514 but confidence is low as the plasma motion is less distinct.
Forecast modelling of the first CME shows a partial minor impact
on 16/1200UT +/- 12 hours. The second CME was very slow and event
modelling assuming Earth side activity showed an Earth miss.
In GONG H-alpha imagery a very small filament located at N00E48
lifted off at 13/0010UT, no CME was evident. The solar wind speed
on UT day 13-Dec declined, ranging from 308 to 391 km/s and is
currently near 335 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north south IMF component
(Bz) range was +6 to -7 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to increase over 14-15 Dec due to coronal hole high speed wind
stream effects from a small equatorial coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 13 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 12121322
Cocos Island 4 11111212
Darwin 5 11111322
Townsville 7 11211323
Learmonth 8 22122323
Alice Springs 5 11111322
Gingin 9 -3122323
Canberra 7 12221322
Hobart 7 12221322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Dec :
Macquarie Island 14 12343432
Casey 21 45532223
Mawson 24 24323364
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11 1111 5421
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Dec 10 G0
15 Dec 8 G0
16 Dec 16 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 13-Dec. In the Antarctic region G0 conditions
were observed at Macquarie Island, G1 periods were observed at
Casey and an isolated G2 period was observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 14-15 Dec. A weak CME is expected
to mildly increase geomagnetic activity on 16-Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Dec Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 13-Dec were
mostly normal. Mostly normal HF communication conditions are
expected over 14-15 Dec. A mild degradation for middle to high
latitudes is possible on 16-Dec due to a weak CME. Isolated shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Dec 110
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 114
Dec 100
Jan 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Dec 110 Near predicted monthly values
15 Dec 110 Near predicted monthly values
16 Dec 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values in the Australian region on UT day 13-Dec. Mild
spread F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 14-16 Dec,
with mildly degraded HF conditions possible for the southern
Australian region during local night hours on 16-Dec, due to
an anticipated weak CME arrival. Isolated shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Dec
Speed: 366 km/sec Density: 8.7 p/cc Temp: 65400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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