[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 December 23 issued 2330 UT on 12 Dec 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 13 10:30:58 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 DECEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 DECEMBER - 15 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Dec: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 124/77 122/75 122/75
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-Dec was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares observed. The largest flare was a
C9.1 at 12/0338UT produced by AR3514 (N11W16, beta). There are
currently six numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk.
AR3514 has exhibited spot development over the UT day. AR3513
(N19W26, beta) has shown decay in its intermediate and trailer
spots. AR3517 (N17W02, beta) has shown growth in its trailer
spots. Newly numbered region AR3518 (N13E73, alpha) recently
rotated onto the solar disk and appears stable. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels over 13-15 Dec. No Earth-directed CMEs
have been observed. A southeast directed CME was observed, visible
in STEREO-A coronagraph imagery from 12/1953UT. This CME is associated
with an eruption on the eastern limb, visible in GOES-SUVI imagery
at 12/1925UT and is not considered geoeffective. The solar wind
speed on UT day 12-Dec increased, ranging from 310 to 400 km/s
and is currently near 380 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 13 nT and the north south IMF component
(Bz) range was +8 to -12 nT. An increase in the interplanetary
field strength was observed at 12/1135UT, possibly indicative
of a weak CME impact. A sustained period of southward IMF conditions
immediately followed, concluding at 12/1721UT. The solar wind
speed is expected to increase over 13-15 Dec due to coronal hole
high speed wind stream effects from a small equatorial coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 12 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 11112221
Cocos Island 2 10012201
Darwin 4 11012221
Townsville 5 11113221
Learmonth 4 01012222
Alice Springs 3 01012221
Gingin 5 11112222
Canberra 5 01113221
Hobart 5 01113221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Dec :
Macquarie Island 8 01114420
Casey 15 24433322
Mawson 18 24324442
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0100 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Dec 10 G0
14 Dec 10 G0
15 Dec 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 12-Dec. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 13-15 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 12-Dec were
mostly normal. Mostly normal HF communication conditions are
expected over 13-15 Dec. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Dec 113
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 114
Dec 100
Jan 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Dec 110 Near predicted monthly values
14 Dec 110 Near predicted monthly values
15 Dec 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values in the Australian region on UT day 12-Dec. Sporadic
E was observed during the UT day at Learmonth and Perth. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 13-15 Dec.
Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Dec
Speed: 342 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 18200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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