[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 11 December 23 issued 2330 UT on 11 Dec 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 12 10:30:09 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 DECEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 DECEMBER - 14 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Dec: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 122/75 122/75
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 11-Dec was at the R0 level,
with several low level C-class flares. There are currently five
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3513 (N19W12,
beta) is the largest region on the solar disk and has shown decay
in its trailer spots. AR3514 (N11W02, beta) has exhibited spot
development over the UT day. Newly numbered AR3517 (N17E12, beta)
has shown some minor growth over the 24-hour period. All other
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 12-14 Dec. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 11-Dec
decreased, ranging from 305 to 355 km/s and is currently near
310 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 5 nT and the north south IMF component (Bz) range was
+5 to -3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain near
background levels on 12-Dec, then increase over 13-14 Dec due
to a small equatorial coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 11 Dec : A K
Australian Region 1 11101001
Cocos Island 1 10001001
Darwin 2 11101101
Townsville 3 21101111
Learmonth 2 10102101
Alice Springs 1 11101000
Gingin 0 10001000
Canberra 1 11001000
Hobart 1 11001000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 10 34331111
Mawson 8 23212223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1110 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Dec 8 G0
13 Dec 10 G0
14 Dec 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 11-Dec. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 12-14 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 11-Dec were
mostly normal. Mostly normal HF communication conditions are
expected over 12-14 Dec. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Dec 114
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 114
Dec 100
Jan 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
13 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
14 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values to 20% enhanced in the Australian region on UT
day 11-Dec. Sporadic E was frequently observed during the UT
day at Learmonth and Perth. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values over 12-14 Dec. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Dec
Speed: 408 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 56800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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