[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 December 23 issued 2330 UT on 10 Dec 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 11 10:30:51 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 DECEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 DECEMBER - 13 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Dec: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.3 0353UT confirmed lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.4 2243UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Dec: 127/80
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec
Activity R0-R1,chance R2 R0-R1,chance R2 R0-R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 118/70
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-Dec was at the R1 level
due to low level M class flares from solar region AR3511(S23W69,
beta-gamma). This solar region also produced eleven C class flares
and is now approaching the south western solar limb. The other
region of note AR3513(N19E02, beta-gamma) has shown development
in its trailers and redistribution of its intermediate spots
and only produced a single low level C class flare. There are
currently eight numbered sunspot regions and one unnumbered region
on the visible solar disk. The unnumbered region is small and
located at N13E14. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels
over 11-13 Dec, with the chance of an isolated R2 flare. A very
small filament located at S15E15 visible in GONG H-alpha (Chile)
imagery appears to have erupted at 10/1743UT, with no CME apparent.
No significant Earth directed CMEs have been observed. A faint
southward CME was observed in LACO C2 from 10/1148UT, which could
not be correlated with on disk activity. The solar wind speed
on UT day 10-Dec was steady, ranging from 368 to 340km/sec and
is currently near 353 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and the north south IMF component
(Bz) range was +4 to -4 nT. A narrow coronal hole spans the solar
central meridian in the southern solar hemisphere and may cause
a mild increase in wind speed from 11-Dec. An isolated coronal
hole is visible near the solar equator in the eastern solar hemisphere
approaching the solar central meridian.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 10 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 02100011
Cocos Island 1 01100110
Darwin 2 02100011
Townsville 2 12100011
Learmonth 3 12101021
Alice Springs 2 02100011
Gingin 2 01100120
Canberra 2 02200010
Hobart 3 12201011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 12100000
Casey 16 35431132
Mawson 12 24212243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 3 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 1010
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Dec 14 G0, slight chance G1
12 Dec 13 G0, slight chance G1
13 Dec 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 10-Dec. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 11-13 Dec, with a mild increase in geomagnetic activity
expected due to a coronal hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
12 Dec Normal Fair-normal Fair
13 Dec Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 10-Dec were
mostly normal. Fair to normal HF communication conditions are
expected over 11-12 Dec. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Dec 112
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 114
Dec 100
Jan 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
12 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
13 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 128 was issued on
9 December and is current for 9-11 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) were near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced in
the Australian region on UT day 10-Dec. Sporadic E was frequently
observed during the UT day at Learmonth and Perth. Spread F observed
overnight at Hobart. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values over 11-13 Dec. Mild depressions of 10-15% may be experienced
briefly after local dawn on 12-Dec. Isolated shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Dec
Speed: 419 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 105000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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